The year has gotten off to a difficult start. An ICE officer killed Renee Good amid the agency’s invasion of Minnesota’s Twin Cities. And then it happened again last weekend when an ICE agent killed Alex Pretti.
Immigration enforcement’s overreach there and elsewhere now has us confronting the most serious human rights violations of the Trump era.
And there have also been bright spots. Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill were sworn in as Governors after landslide wins in November. Former Rep. Mary Peltola jumped into the Alaska Senate race. And Sen. Amy Klobuchar announced her gubernatorial campaign.
We still have three years of the Trump Administration, but we can stem some of the horror by helping Dems take back Congress and elect more women to governorships this year. Let’s dive into how that’s going.
🧊Half of American women support abolishing ICE, polling shows [The 19th]
Recruitment Zoom ft. Sen. Klobuchar
The big news from this month: US Sen. Amy Klobuchar (MN) is running for governor.
Her announcement comes amid the Department of Homeland Security’s invasion of her home state and the threat of a partial shutdown of the Department as Democratic Senators—including Sen. Klobuchar—threaten to block its funding.
On Wednesday we hosted Sen. Klobuchar during our 2026 Briefing, Recruitment and Renewal Zoom. ICE was the major topic of conversation.
She answered questions about Republicans’ response to the unlawful behavior of ICE in Minnesota, concerns about the prospect of free and fair elections, the need to hold ICE and DHS accountable, the importance of her voice in the Senate, and how she is thinking about the state’s governor’s race.
💵 Please support her campaign via our EWA Supports Sen. Klobuchar slate.
US Senate: A Tale of Four States
Polling shows ICE’s overreach has led to major erosion in the 2024 coalition that propelled Trump and Republicans to victory. Specifically, nearly all the support Republicans gained among Latino, suburban and young voters is gone.
This has major implications for the four US Senate races featuring women that we’re watching most closely.
The swing among Latinos has huge implications for Texas, where they are one third of the electorate, and populations in the Rio Grande Valley have gone strongly for Republicans in the last two cycles. Last year’s elections in New Jersey and Virginia already show a double-digit shift among Latino voters.
Populous suburbs around Detroit mean swings among suburban voters are likely to have the biggest impact in Michigan. This can hopefully start to make a dent in former Rep. Mike Rogers’ small-but-persistent lead in general election head-to-head matchups (most of this may be name ID).
Maine and Alaska are both smaller states without large Latino or suburban populations, though that does mean even small swings among any group of voters could have outsize impact. ICE has briefly stepped up operations in Maine before pulling back, so we’ll see how that plays out.
Mary Peltola (AK) raised $1.5 million in the first 24 hours of her campaign. Nearly $60,000 of that came through the WomenCount platform.
News Clips
South TX Hispanics Flipped for Trump. Some Have Buyer’s Remorse [Rolling Stone]
Former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya enters MN U.S. Senate race [Minnesota]
Peggy Flanagan on Power and Purpose [Minnesota Monthly]
Reps. Craig, Emmer spar on House floor over Minneapolis ICE shooting [CBS]
Janet Mills to ICE: Aggressive tactics are ‘not welcome’ in Maine [Bangor Daily News]
Stevens joins Tlaib and Thanedar in signing on to Noem impeachment [MI Advance]
AK Senate Race Comes Onto the Competitive Board with Peltola’s Entry [Sabato’s Crystal Ball]
US House: A Seismic Shift
ICE’s behavior is likely to become a major issue in OH-9, currently held by Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur. That’s because the agency’s deputy director, Madison Sheahan, is running for the Republican nomination. This is one of four Democratic-held seats that the Cook Political Report lists as toss up races.
Speaking of Cook, this month they shifted 18 races toward Democrats, including four incumbent women: Reps. Kaptur (Lean R → Toss Up), Jahana Hayes (Lean D → Solid D), Hillary Scholten (Lean D → Solid D), and Laura Gillen (Toss Up → Lean D). Two other races where women are frontrunners to take on incumbent Republicans (IA-3 and NY-17) have also shifted into the Toss Up column.
Also on our radar: Two upcoming US House special elections in safe D seats.
Jan. 31: TX-18 (Solid D)
- Former at-large Houston city councilor Amanda Edwards is running to fill a vacant Democratic US House seat formerly held by the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee. She’s facing Democratic county attorney Christian Menefee. Polling has him ahead 43 to 30 percent, but 13 percent are undecided.
Feb. 5: NJ-11 (Solid D)
- There are four credible female candidates in this race to fill the House seat of now Gov. Mikie Sherrill: Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way; former Obama Administration official Cammie Croft; Co-Executive Director of the Center for Popular Democracy Analilia Mejia; and community activist Anna Lee Williams. Other competitive candidates in the primary include former Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski (NJ-7); Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett; and Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill.
News Clips
Eighteen House Ratings Shift Toward Democrats [The Cook Political Report]
Who Will Win the House? Three Maps Tell a Tale of the 2026 Midterms. [NYT]
NY must redraw congressional map before midterms, judge rules [The Guardian]
Top ICE official launches campaign to flip House seat in Ohio [The Downballot]
State & Local: First Look At Legislatures
With Sen. Klobuchar’s entrance into the Minnesota governor race, the field feels set. Now, we’re now starting to see some movement in state legislatures. A new analysis from The Center on Politics (Sabato’s Crystal Ball) finds 15 chambers are competitive:
- Republican-held Toss Up: Arizona Senate, Arizona House, Michigan House, New Hampshire House, Wisconsin Senate and Wisconsin Assembly
- Democratic-held Toss Up: Michigan Senate, Minnesota Senate, Minnesota House (tied)
- Republican-held Lean R: New Hampshire Senate and Pennsylvania Senate
Democratic-held Lean D: Maine House and Pennsylvania House - Other: Both Alaska chambers are likely to retain bipartisan control
Most of these states dovetail with those that the Electing Women Alliance will be watching and working in, both to support Democrats and increase the number of women legislators.
- Alaska: House above parity; Senate at 25 percent
- Arizona: House at 45 percent; Senate at parity
- California: House at 46 percent ; Senate at 53 percent
- Colorado: House at 56 percent; Senate at 43 percent
- Georgia: House at 38 percent; Senate at 23 percent
- Ohio: House at 36 percent; Senate at 30 percent
- Oregon: House at 50 percent; Senate at 38 percent
- Michigan: House at 40 percent; Senate at 38 percent
- Minnesota: House at 40 percent; Senate at 31 percent
- Nevada: Assembly at 62 percent; Senate at 62 percent
- New Hampshire: Senate at 36 percent; House at 42 percent
- New Mexico: House at 64 percent; Senate at 38 percent
- North Carolina: House at 30 percent; Senate at 32 percent
- Pennsylvania: House at 31 percent; Senate at 38 percent
- Tennessee: House at 15 percent; Senate at 24 percent
- Virginia: House at 42 percent; Senate at 38 percent
- Washington: House at 47 percent; Senate at 41 percent
- Wisconsin: Assembly at 34 percent; Senate at 30 percent
News Clips
Handicapping The 2026 State Legislative Map: A First Look [Sabato’s Crystal Ball]
DLCC Spotlights Majority-Deciding Special Election in Minnesota [DLCC]
One safe bet in the race for governor: Lombardo won’t be outspent [NV Current]
Democratic U.S. Sen. Klobuchar makes move toward Minnesota governor run [MPR]
Greener Pastures? Senators running for governor aim to head home and leave D.C. behind [DDHQ]