With the year winding down, we’re using December’s Insider to take a look at the state of key races as we head into 2026. These are snippets—please note full analysis from our Political Director Alexandra Acker-Lyons are linked in the US Senate and Governor sections.
Thank you for all you did throughout the year, culminating with November wins that give us wind at our backs.
See you in 2026 🎉
🔖2026 Midterm Primary Election Calendar [NYT]
US Senate
Michigan (Tossup, D-Open)
US Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and former head of the Detroit Health Department Abdul El-Sayed are all polling within a few points of each other in the Democratic primary and against likely Republican nominee former US Rep. Mike Rogers, the 2024 nominee.
Minnesota (Likely D, D-Open)
There hasn’t been a lot of polling in this primary, but the polls that do exist have shown Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan consistently leading US Rep. Angie Craig. The race may shift going forward—longtime sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya is reportedly considering entering the race as a Republican, and Former Minnesota GOP chair David Hann has already entered the race.
Illinois (Solid D, D-Open)
Polling shows Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi with a double digit lead over Lt. Gov. Juliana Statton and US Rep. Robin Kelly, and cash on hand six times higher than Kelly and Stratton combined. But observers predict support for Stratton from Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Emily’s List to shake up this race in January.
Maine (Toss Up, R-Incumbent)
The polling here is all over the place with most results showing oyster farmer Graham Platner with anywhere from a single- to double-digit lead against Gov. Janet Mills in the primary, and another recent poll showing her ahead of Platner by 10. General head-to-head polling has shown both Platner and Mills with slim leads on incumbent GOP US Sen. Susan Collins.
Texas (Likely R-Incumbent)
Recent polls after US Rep. Jasmine Crockett entered the race show her with an 8 point lead over state Rep. James Talarico. AG Ken Paxton, US Sen. John Cornyn and new candidate US Rep. Wesley Hunt run strong against her, with head-to-heads against Talarico showing a much closer race.
General Fundraising Trends
After taking into account third-quarter filings, men are still outraising women for the cycle by $4.7 million on average. Both US Sen. Jon Ossoff (GA) and Krishnamoorthi (IL) each have double the cash on hand of every Democratic woman combined. We don’t have full third-quarter numbers for Crockett or Mills yet; we expect them to be sizable but ultimately not make much of a dent in this trend.
🔖 View all current Senate polls via FiftyPlusOne
🔖 Cook Political Report Senate Ratings
🔖 Full analysis from EWA’s Political Director Alexandra Acker-Lyons
News Clips
Four Questions in the Battle for the Senate Heading into 2026 [Cook Political Report]
Rogers leads Senate poll as Stevens closes gap [MI Advance]
Pete Buttigieg endorses Angie Craig in Minnesota Democrats’ Senate primary [NBC]
Here’s What It Takes for a Democrat to Win in Texas [The Nation]
US House
Incumbents
Kristen McDonald Rivet (MI-08, Lean D): Donald Trump carried this district by 2 points in 2024, yet Rep. McDonald Rivet won it by 7 points. Amir Hassan, a Navy veteran, is the only declared Republican.
Nellie Pou (NJ-09, Lean D): Rep. Pou won with less than 51 percent in 2024. Rosie Pino, a Clifton city councilor, is the only declared Republican candidate, though there is buzz around Tiffany Glenn Burress, the wife of football player Plaxico Burress.
Laura Gillen (NY-04, Tossup): Rep. Gillen won with 51 percent in 2024. So far, she has no credible Republican challenger, though former US Rep. Anthony D’Esposito—who she beat last year—is said to be considering a run.
Susie Lee (NV-03, Lean D): Rep. Lee won re-election with less than 52 percent in 2024. The Republican primary is crowded with no clear frontrunner, though game designer Marty O’Donnell and neurosurgeon Aury Nagy pose threats as self-funders.
Marcy Kaptur (OH-09, Lean R): Rep. Kaptur won with a plurality in 2024. Redistricting in Ohio has now shifted the district from Trump +7 to Trump +11. A crowded Republican primary is brewing, though no frontrunner has emerged.
Emilia Sykes (OH-13, Lean D): Rep. Sykes was re-elected with 51 percent in 2024. The Republican frontrunner, state Sen. Kevin Coughlin, has dropped out after redistricting preserved Democrats’ slim advantage in the district.
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03, Tossup): Rep. Gluesenkamp Perez was re-elected with less than 52 percent in 2024. This is a top-two primary; her most formidable opponent is considered to be Republican Washington Senate Minority Leader John Braun.
Open
Marlene Galen-Woods (AZ-1, Tossup): Incumbent Republican Rep. Dave Schweikert—who won with 52 percent in 2024—is running for governor. There are crowded fields in both the Democratic and Republican primaries.
Denise Powell (NE-2, Lean D): Incumbent Rep. Don Bacon’s retirement threw this Harris +4 district into the Democrats’ column. Powell, founder of Women Who Run, leads Democratic primary fundraising but is still chasing state Sen. John Cavanaugh in name ID.
Challengers
JoAnna Mendoza (AZ-6, Tossup): Incumbent Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani won just 50 percent of the vote in 2024. Mendoza, a former Marine and congressional staffer, is the frontrunner in a three-way Democratic primary.
Jasmeet Bains (CA-22, Tossup): This seat was redistricted from Trump +6 to Harris +14. It’s likely to be a very competitive top-two primary with Republican Rep. David Valadao and Democrats Assemblymember Bains; 2024 nominee and former Assemblymember Rudy Salas; and Visalia trustee Randy Villegas, who has been endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Marni von Wilpert, Whitney Shanahan (CA-48, Tossup): This seat was also redistricted from Trump +15 to Harris +17. Republican Rep. Darrell Issa is still running. San Diego city councilor von Wilpert and reproductive rights advocate Shanahan are the only two viable women in the race.
Shannon Bird (CO-8, Tossup): Incumbent Rep. Gabe Evans flipped this seat with less than a 1 percent plurality against incumbent Democrat Yadira Caraveo. Bird and Manny Rutinel, both state representatives, are leading in the primary.
Christina Bohannan (IA-01, Tossup): Incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks also held this seat with less than a 1 percent plurality last year, against former state Rep. Bohannan, who has cleared the primary field and is looking for a rematch.
Jennifer Konfrst, Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03, Lean R): Incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn was re-elected with less than 52 percent last year. Trone Garriott is leading in fundraising, though both have notched major endorsements.
Bridget Brink (MI-07, Tossup): Freshman incumbent Rep. Tom Barrett won this open seat by less than 4 percent in 2025. The scant polling in this race shows Brink, the former ambassador to Ukraine, ahead by the same 4 percent.
Rebecca Bennett (NJ-7, Tossup): Incumbent Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. was re-elected in 2024 with less than 52 percent. The Democratic primary is crowded, though endorsements and donations seem to be coalescing around Navy veteran Bennett.
Carol Obando-Derstine (PA-7, Tossup): Incumbent Rep. Ryan Mackenzie flipped this seat in 2024 with just 50.5 percent. The primary is likely to be a three-way race among Obando-Derstine—who led the state’s Advisory Commission on Latino Affairs—PA Professional Firefighters Association President Bob Brooks and Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure.
Paige Cognetti (PA-8, Leans R): Rep. Rob Bresnahan flipped this district with just 50.8 percent in 2024. Scranton Mayor Cognetti is the clear frontrunner to take him on; polls show her leading by low single digits.
Janelle Stelson (PA-10, Tossup): Incumbent Rep. Scott Perry was re-elected with 50.6 percent last year. Stelson, a former WGAL anchor and nominee in 2024, is the primary frontrunner. General election polls have her leading by low single digits.
Elaine Luria (VA-2, Tossup): Incumbent Rep. Jen Kiggans, who flipped this district in 2022 against former Rep. Luria, won by an even smaller margin (50.7 percent) last year. Luria is the frontrunner to reclaim the seat, though the primary is crowded.
Rebecca Cooke (WI-3, Tossup): Cooke—a former Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation board member—is looking for a third rematch with incumbent Rep. Derrick Van Orden, who won by just 51 percent last year. Cooke faces Emily Berge, a member of the Eau Claire City Council, in the primary.
🔖 View all current House polls via FiftyPlusOne
🔖 Cook Political Report House Ratings
🔖2025-2026 Redistricting Tracker [UPDATED]
General Fundraising Trends
In contrast to US Senate fundraising, US House women are meeting or exceeding the average raise amount of their male counterparts. Incumbent Democratic women in tossup races are averaging $1.5 million versus $1.7 million for incumbent men. Challengers are faring better, outraising their male counterparts $1.2 million versus 700k. It’s notable that women are frontrunners or serious contenders in all 12 races Cook rates as Republican-held tossups, which could be driving these dollars.
News Clips
These Numbers From Tennessee Reveal Republicans’ Predicament [Cook]
The underrated factors limiting the power of a blue wave next year [Politico]
More than 10% of Congress won’t return to their seats after 2026 [NPR]
Pa. will help determine control of the U.S. House in the 2026 election [WHYY]
Meet the Democrat trying to make another blue wave happen [WABE]
Governors
Arizona (Tossup, D-Incumbent)
Incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs has a slim polling lead in head-to-heads against all three Republican candidates: US House Reps. David Schweikert and Andy Biggs, and attorney Karrin Taylor Robson, who lost to Kari Lake in the GOP primary in 2022. Biggs is ahead in the primary by double digits.
Wisconsin (Tossup, D-Open)
The scant polling in this race shows former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes with a wide lead in the crowded primary field, ahead of even current Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, the highest-polling woman. The gap is likely to narrow as the race gets hotter. There has not been enough general election polling to gauge the state of that race yet.
Michigan (Tossup, D-Open)
Incumbent Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is leading the primary—which includes Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson—by double digits. But sitting Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is sucking up about 20 percent of the vote as an Independent, according to polling, creating a close general election race between Benson and likely Republican nominee John James.
Ohio (Likely R, R-Open)
Former COVID-era state state health department director Amy Acton is the only person currently running on the Democratic side. Former Trump advisor Vivek Ramaswamy has cleared the field on the Republican side. Polls have them neck-and-neck.
Kansas (Lean R, D-Open)
Incumbent Gov. Laura Kelly’s win can be credited to Republican Gov. Sam Brownback’s disastrous tenure. His lieutenant governor, Jeff Colyer, has cleared the Republican field. Democrats Ethan Corson and Cindy Holscher have declared but keeping this seat is an uphill battle for Democrats.
Maine (Likely D, D-Open)
Democrats include Shenna Bellows, the current Secretary of State; state Sen. Troy Jackson; Angus King III, son of US Sen. Angus King; and former Maine House Speaker Hannah Pingree who is the daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree. This will be a competitive primary but relatively safe general election although Jonathan Bush, nephew of the former President, has declared on the Republican side.
New Mexico (Likely D, D-Open)
Former Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland is the Democratic frontrunner (leading by double digits) in New Mexico, though the field includes Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman and former Mayor of Las Cruces Ken Miyagishiman.
New York (Solid D, D-Incumbent)
Incumbent Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul will face her former lieutenant governor, Rep. Antonio Delgado, in the primary—though Gov. Hochul currently leads in polling by +30 or more. In a surprise move, US Rep. Elise Stefanik, has dropped out of the race, leaving Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman as the sole entrant in the GOP primary.
California (Solid D, D-Open)
Former US Rep. Katie Porter still leads in most polls for the California governor race, despite the entrance of several high-profile men, including former US Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra, self-funder Tom Steyer and US Rep. Eric Swalwell. There is some concern a Republican could make it into the general election, since the Democratic field is large and this is a top-two primary.
Massachusetts (Solid D, D-Incumbent)
Incumbent Gov. Maura Healey is expected to coast to re-election. Mike Kennealy, Mike Minogue, and Brian Shortsleeve have declared on the Republican side. Current polling indicates her most likely opponent will be Shortsleeve, a former Charlie Baker Administration official.
Oregon (Solid D, D-Incumbent)
Incumbent Gov. Tina Kotek won a three-way race with 47 percent in 2022. With no campaign finance limits, business interests usually spend heavily for the Republican nominee; state Rep. Christine Drazan has announced, setting up a 2022 rematch.
🔖 View all current polls via FiftyPlusOne
🔖 Cook Political Report Governor Ratings
🔖 Full analysis from EWA’s Political Director Alexandra Acker-Lyons
News Clips
Wisconsin Governor: Barnes Is Back, but He’s No Sure Bet [Cook]
California Dems confront a star-power vacuum—and a big math problem [Politico]
GOP plot foreshadowed Democrats’ plans for 2026 redistricting [VA Mercury]
2026 state Attorney General elections: what you need to know [Reuters]