Against the backdrop of Black History Month, it’s a sad fact of our political reality: Black women lag far behind in representation at all levels of government. Black women are nearly 8 percent of the US population, but consider these stats:
- US Senate: 2 percent
- US House: 6 percent
- Governor: 0 percent
- Other Statewide: 3.5 percent
- State Legislature: 5.5 percent
A lot of disparities contribute to this. There’s the pipeline problem, where fewer Black women run—though when they do run, they are just as or sometimes more likely to win than their white counterparts. And there’s the money problem, where Black women are raising a fraction of what their white counterparts do.
But we’ve identified another big problem: The bottleneck.
Retirements in safe D districts have been key for Black women’s advancement. But since the early 2010s, retirement rates have been in the low double digits (about 10–15 percent of seats per cycle).
This year, 62 (or about 12 percent) of congressional incumbents have announced they will not run for re-election in 2026. However, 60 percent of those are Republicans while only 40 percent are Democrats. That amounts to two likely or safe D US Senate seats, and 22 likely or safe D seats. Black women are competitive candidates for the Democratic nomination in only 10 of those.
That’s just not enough. We need to prioritize recruiting and funding Black women for every single one of these safe D seats if we want to see real progress.
This also creates a paradox in Democratic ‘wave’ cycles—like this year, fingers crossed—when you would expect to see more Black women elected. Retirements are high, but they are typically in competitive, Republican-held districts.
That’s why these next few weeks are critical.
March primaries feature a high number of Black women running for the Democratic nomination, including in two US Senate races: Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton in Illinois and US Rep. Jasmine Crockett in Texas.
Also, please join us at 2 pm Thursday, Feb. 12 for a special presentation on Black women’s prospects in state and national politics as part of this month’s EWA Zoom. We’ll go over more historical analysis and opportunities for growth this cycle.