The big national news since our last Insider is, of course, VP Harris’ dominant debate performance. But we also made it to the end of primary season, saw the race to hold the Senate tighten, and got some good news for women’s representation in the House.
US Senate: Pollercoaster Ups & Downs
First, the good news: Candidates in the rust belt—a region critical for holding the Senate and winning the presidency—are looking good. The latest polls in Wisconsin have Tammy Baldwin winning a majority or near-majority, and Elissa Slotkin ahead by a comfortable 5 to 9 points. Better-than-expected polling from Florida also shows Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in a dead heat.
The not so good news starts in Maryland, where a reliably blue seat is, by some accounts, also in a dead heat as Angela Alsobrooks confronts $8 million in oppositional ad spending. And it continues in Nevada, where Jacky Rosen is polling better, though the tie in the presidential race gives us doubts that advantage is real. It’s rare that anyone splits their ticket statewide anymore, and we’re seeing that in Montana, where VP Harris and Jon Tester are badly underwater.
Delaware made history last week nominating Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester as the Democratic Senate nominee in this safe blue state, meaning there will almost certainly be at least one Black woman in the Senate in the next Congress.
💰 Raising & Spending:
Democrat in Florida Senate race raises more than $1M after poll showing dead heat [The Hill]
A Democrat Could Make Rick Scott Spend It All in Florida’s Senate Race [New York Magazine]
👥 Debate Watch:
Slotkin, Rogers set to face off in 2 Senate debates [The Detroit News]
Missouri gubernatorial, U.S. Senate debates to be held in Springfield [Springfield News-Leader]
📺 New Ads & Media:
Slotkin targets GOP’s Rogers on abortion with new ads [The Detroit News]
📈 Pollercoaster:
Poll for 2024 Senate shows Dems lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin [CBS News]
Sen. Baldwin maintains a tight lead over Hovde in Marquette poll [MKE Journal-Sentinel]
Poll: NV Latinos backing Harris, but margin with Trump closer than in 2020 [NV Independent]
📰 Analysis & News:
The Blue State Race That Could Give Republicans Control of the Senate [Slate]
Mayors of FL’s biggest cities endorse Mucarsel-Powell for U.S. Senate [FL Phoenix]
As MT Senate Moves to Lean R, GOP Increasingly Favored To Win Majority [Cook Report]
US House: The Final, Final Primaries
On September 10, voters headed to the polls for the final primaries of the 2024 cycle—in Delaware, New Hampshire and Rhode Island. And both states delivered great news for women.
- DE-At Large, Likely Democrat, Open: The Democratic nominee for this seat, state Sen. Sarah McBride, is on track to be the first transgender person elected to Congress. She will also hold this seat, which is being vacated by Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester as she runs for Senate, for women.
- NH-2, Likely Democrat, Open: This is an open seat currently held by retiring Rep. Annie Kuster. U.S. Deputy Assistant Attorney General Maggie Goodlander easily won the primary against former Executive Council member and gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern, meaning women are likely to hold it.
With women continuing to win safe or likely Democratic seats, we’re starting to see that the representation situation for women in the House might not be as dire as we had feared. There are a total of 12 incumbent Democratic women departing, but a total of 14 women expected to win in safe or likely Democratic seats. But we can’t get complacent, as there are still nine incumbent women most at risk of losing their seats and only seven in the most competitive red to blue districts. If the election breaks for Democrats in November, we could see a measurable increase in the number of women in Congress—but it’s obviously too soon to say.
🔖 Bookmark: Slides | September 11 Political Overview [Electing Women Alliance]
💰 Raising & Spending:
Democrats hope Tim Walz brings boost in battleground congressional races [CBS News]
Republicans Are Losing the House Fundraising Battle [The Bulwark]
👥 Debate Watch:
Yadira Caraveo agrees to two debates, but challenger Gabe Evans wants more [CO Politics]
Wild, Mackenzie face off on inflation, abortion, immigration in first debate [The Morning Call]
Joe Kent agrees to Oct. 2 debate with Gluesenkamp Perez [The Centralia Chronicle]
📺 New Ads & Media:
Congressional Leadership Fund releases swing-district ads [Punchbowl News]
Democratic group goes after Junge on abortion in new ad [The Detroit News]
7th District race heats up as Altman launches attack ad [NJ Spotlight]
An interview with Sue Altman [NJ Globe]
📈 Pollercoaster:
Oregon’s highest-profile race for Congress is a dead heat, poll finds [The Oregonian]
📰 Analysis & News:
Two Years After Hochul, Can D’Esposito Keep It Local? [Cook Political Report]
House Ratings Changes: Several Races Move in Democrats’ Favor [Cook Political Report]
Democrats are making a risky bet in Arizona. It could decide the election. [Washington Post]
State & Local: Deep Dive on New Hampshire
Following last week’s primaries, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig is the official Democratic nominee for Governor in New Hampshire, beating Executive Council member Cinde Warmington 48 to 42 percent. She’ll face former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte.
We don’t yet have current head-to-head polling in this race, but the polls from last year had Ayotte ahead by between 4 and 13 points, largely due to her name recognition as the state’s most recent Republican senator.
Last time this office was competitive—as an open seat in 2016 held by outgoing governor and current US Sen. Maggie Hassan—Republican Chris Sununu won with 48.8 percent of the vote, compared to 46.6 percent for Democrat Colin Van Ostern. (Van Ostern lost the primary last week against Maggie Goodlander for New Hampshire’s open US House seat.)
We expect the race to be just as tight this time around. Cook says it is the most competitive gubernatorial contest in the nation.
💰 Raising & Spending:
With an eye toward economy, NH’s top candidates spend more outside of NH [Concord Monitor]
📰 Analysis & News:
Kelly Ayotte to Face Joyce Craig in New Hampshire’s Governor’s Race [Cook Political Report]
Analysis: How we arrived at Ayotte-Craig showdown in governor’s race [WMUR]
Ayotte vs. Craig: Analysis of 2024 election matchups [Seacoast Online]
National & Women: The First, and Maybe Last, Debate
Our rallying cry for VP Harris has been, “The first, but not the last,” but we might not be able to say the same for the presidential debates. Focus groups, polling and political experts—even some Republicans—are conceding that the VP cleaned Trump’s clock when they met last Tuesday.
She immediately called for another one, though Trump has declined, meaning right now it looks like Sen. JD Vance—who has vocally supported a national abortion ban—will have the last word for their campaign on the debate stage, when he and Gov. Tim Walz meet on CBS on Oct. 1. With new post-debate polls showing a slight bump for VP Harris, Trump might want the opportunity to save face.
💰 Raising & Spending:
Harris’ $47 million Trump debate bump [Axios]
Where Trump and Harris Stand With Donations [The Atlantic]
Trump’s LA fundraiser shows the power of Southern California pocketbooks [LA Daily News]
👥 Debate Watch:
Scoffs, smiles, squints: Kamala Harris’s face spoke volumes in Trump debate [The Guardian]
An undecided swing state voter watched the debate. It moved the needle [NPR]
📺 New Ads & Media:
Harris campaign releasing ad featuring her closing statement from ABC debate [ABC News]
DNC Leans Into Taylor Swift’s Kamala Harris Endorsement With New Ads [Rolling Stone]
READ: Harris-Trump presidential debate transcript [ABC News]
📈 Pollercoaster:
Our new Iowa Poll breaks down who voters prefer – and why [Des Moines Register]
Harris maintains slight edge over Trump among voters nationwide [Ipsos, post-debate]
👀 Eyes on the Veep (Candidate):
Here’s how to watch the first vice presidential debate [MKE Journal-Sentinel]
Tim Walz Says Debate Like a School Lunchroom [Wall Street Journal]
The Audacity of Ope? Wisconsin breweries battle over Tim Walz-inspired beer [MN Star-Tribune]
📰 Analysis & News:
Is America Ready to Elect a Female President? [The Bulwark]