Here it is: Our annual rundown of the elections we’re watching, poll closing times and intel about when we expect to have results.
Bellwether Races Featuring Women
Want to know early if we’re in for a blue wave, tsunami or (hopefully not) a trickle? Watch these states where polls close early. Note: All times are ET.
All are races featuring women who can flip seats critical to retaking majorities in the House and Senate and increasing the number of Democratic governors and Democrat-controlled state legislatures.
Election Night Resource: Poll Closing Map [The Downballot]
7 PM ET: Georgia, South Carolina & Virginia
Georgia
Three competitive races in this newly purple state will tell us a lot about the composition of the electorate in 2026.
- Governor: Fmr. Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (Toss Up)
- Attorney General: State Rep. Tanya Miller
- Secretary of State: Judge Penny Brown Reynolds
- Democrats need to flip 10 seats to win control of the state House.
- Georgia is a state where we’re hoping to increase the number of women in the state legislature.
South Carolina
South Carolina is normally a reliably red state. If a prolonged vote count happens, expect a good night for Democrats. In 2024, the state was called for Trump at 8:01 ET.
- Senate: Dr. Annie Andrews (Lean R)
- SC-1: Nancy Lacore (Lean R)
- Democrats can break a supermajority in the state house.
Virginia
- VA-1: Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor (Toss Up)
- VA-2: Former Rep. Elaine Luria (Likely D)
7:30 PM ET: Ohio
Ohio
In 2024, the state was called for Trump at 9:08 ET. In a Democratic wave, it could be called around the same time for Acton. We could be waiting longer if the election is very close.
- Governor: Dr. Amy Acton (Lean D)
- OH-9: Rep. Marcy Kaptur (Toss Up)
- OH-10: Kristina Knickerbocker (Lean R)
- OH-13: Rep. Emilia Sykes (Likely D)
8 PM ET: Florida
Florida
Polls close at 7 pm ET in most of the state, but statewide results will not be available until western polling locations close at 7 pm CT / 8 pm ET. Florida counts fast. If statewide races are too close to call soon after polls close, that is a good sign for Democrats. In 2024, the state was also called for Trump at 8:01 ET, indicating higher statewide Republican turnout than anticipated.
- Senate: State Rep. Angie Nixon (Solid R)
- FL-13: Leela Gray (Lean R)
- FL-14: Rep. Kathy Castor (Toss Up)
- FL-22: Pia Dandiya (Toss Up)
Other Bellwether Races to Watch
Most of these competitive races don’t feature women, but the results can still tell us a lot about what the electorate looks like and if it will be a good night for Democrats.
6 PM ET
Indiana
- IN-5: State Sen. JD Ford (Lean R). The district includes several rapidly growing Indianapolis suburbs that are trending Democratic.
- Statewide races including the secretary of state and state treasurer (the candidate for this race is a woman, Coumba Kebe) could be close or even flip.
- Democrats can break a supermajority in the state house.
Kentucky
- KY-6: Zach Dembo (Toss Up). This is the earliest toss up race of the cycle for which we’re likely to have results. This district is fully in Eastern Time.
7 PM ET
Georgia
- US Senate: Sen. Jon Ossoff (Likely D). Based on polling, this is a likely win that should be announced fairly quickly.
7:30 PM ET
Ohio
- Senate: Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (Toss Up). Brown is currently leading by 4 points in the polls. If he is meeting or outperforming that, it should be a good night for Democrats.
- Democrats can also break a supermajority in the state house.
North Carolina
- Senate: Former Gov. Roy Cooper (Likely D). Based on polling, this is a likely win that should be announced fairly quickly.
- Democrats can break a supermajority in the state senate.
8 PM ET
Florida
- Governor: Former Rep. David Jolly (Lean R)
- Democrats can break a supermajority in the state house and senate.
All Races We’re Watching
This list includes competitive House races featuring women and statewide races featuring men and women. Notable state legislative opportunities are also listed.
7 PM ET
Vermont
- Governor: Amanda Janoo (Likely R)
- Democrats can gain a supermajority in the state house and senate.
8 PM ET
Delaware
- Democrats can gain a supermajority in the state house.
Missouri
- Democrats can break a Republican supermajority in both state legislative chambers.
Massachusetts
- Senate: Sen. Ed Markey (Solid D)
- Governor: Gov. Maura Healey (Solid D)
Maine
- Senate: Fmr. State Senate President Troy Jackson (Toss Up)
- Governor: Fmr. Maine House Speaker Hannah Pingree (Solid D)
New Hampshire
- Senate: Rep. Chris Pappas (Lean D)
- House: Fmr. Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen (Likely D)
- Governor: Fmr. Executive Councilor Member Cinde Warmington (Likely R)
- Both the state house and senate can flip Democratic.
New Jersey
- Senate: Sen. Cory Booker (Solid D)
- NJ-7: Rebecca Bennett (Lean D)
- NJ-9: US Rep. Nellie Pou (Likely D)
Oklahoma
- Senate: N’Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (Solid R)
- Governor: State House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson (Likely R)
Pennsylvania
- PA-8: Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (Toss Up)
- PA-10: Janelle Stelson (Lean D)
- Governor: Gov. Josh Shapiro (Solid D)
- The state house can flip Democratic.
- Democrats must defend the state senate.
Rhode Island
- Senate: Sen. Jack Reed (Solid D)
- Governor: Helena Foulkes (Solid D)
Tennessee
- Senate: Marquita Bradshaw (Solid R)
- Governor: Memphis City Councilmember Jerri Green (Solid R)
8:30 PM ET
Arkansas
- Senate: Hallie Shoffner (Solid R)
- Governor: State Sen. Fred Love (Solid R)
9 PM ET
Arizona
- AZ-6: JoAnna Mendoza (Lean D)
- Governor: Gov. Katie Hobbs (Lean D)
- Attorney General: AG Kris Mayes
- Both the state house and senate can flip Democratic.
- The state legislature can also achieve gender parity.
Colorado
- Senate: Sen. John Hickenlooper (Solid D)
- CO-4: Eileen Laubacher (Lean R)
- CO-5: Jessica Killin (Lean R)
- Governor: Attorney General Phil Weiser (Solid D)
- The state legislature can maintain gender parity.
- The state house and senate can reach a Democratic supermajority.
Iowa
- Senate: State Rep. Josh Turek (Toss Up)
- IA-1: Christina Bohannan (Lean D)
- IA-2: State Rep. Lindsay James (Toss Up)
- IA-3: State Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott (Lean D)
- Governor: Auditor of State Rob Sand (Lean D)
- Democrats can break a supermajority in the state house.
Kansas
- Senate: Adam Hamilton (Toss Up)
- Governor: State Sen. Cindy Holscher (Lean R)
- Democrats can break a supermajority in the state house.
Michigan
- Senate: Fmr. Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed (Toss Up)
- MI-8: Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (Likely D)
- MI-10: Fmr. prosecutor Christina Hines (Toss Up)
- Governor: Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (Lean D)
- The state house can flip Democratic.
- Democrats must defend the state senate.
Minnesota
- Senate: Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (Lean D)
- Governor: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (Solid D)
- The state house can flip Democratic.
- Democrats must defend the state senate.
Nebraska
- Senate: Union leader Dan Osborn — Independent (Likely R)
- NE-2: Denise Powell (Likely D)
- Governor: fmr. Nebraska Sen. Lynne Walz (Lean R)
New Mexico
- Senate: Sen. Ben Ray Luján (Solid D)
- Governor: fmr. Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland (Solid D)
- Lieutenant Governor: Commissioner of Public Lands Stephanie Garcia Richard
- Secretary of State: Amanda Lopez Askin
- The state legislature can maintain gender parity.
- The state house can reach a Democratic supermajority.
New York
- Governor: Gov. Kathy Hochul (Solid D)
- NY-4: Rep. Laura Gillen (Likely D)
- NY-17: Cait Conley (Toss Up)
- The state senate can reach a Democratic supermajority.
Texas
- Senate: State Rep. James Talarico (Toss Up)
- Governor: State Rep. Gina Hinojosa (Lean R)
- Lieutenant Governor: State Rep. Vikki Goodwin
- Comptroller: State Sen. Sarah Eckhardt
- TX-9: Leticia Gutierrez (Likely R)
- TX-23: Katie Padilla Stout (Lean R)
Wisconsin
- WI-03: Rebecca Cooke (Lean D)
- Governor: Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (Toss Up)
- Lieutenant Governor: Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski
- Both the state house and senate can flip Democratic.
10 PM ET
Nevada
- NV-1: Rep. Dina Titus (Likely D)
- NV-2: Fmr. Nevada Assembly Majority Leader Teresa Benitez-Thompson (Lean R)
- NV-3: Rep. Susie Lee (Likely D)
- Governor: Attorney General Aaron Ford (Toss Up)
- Attorney General: State Sen. Cannizzaro
- The state legislature can maintain parity.
- The state house can reach a Democratic supermajority.
11 PM ET
California
- CA-48: San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert (Lean D)
- Governor: Fmr. HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra (Solid D)
- The state legislature can reach gender parity.
Oregon
- Senate: Sen. Jeff Merkley (Solid D)
- Governor: Gov. Tina Kotek (Lean D)
- The state legislature can reach gender parity.
- The state senate can reach a Democratic supermajority.
Washington
- WA-3: Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Lean D)
- The state legislature can reach gender parity.
- The state house can reach a Democratic supermajority.
1 AM ET
Alaska
- Senate: Fmr. Rep. Mary Peltola (Toss Up)
- Governor: Fmr. Alaska Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (Lean D)
When We’ll Have Results
What We’ll Know on Election Night
If the blue wave we’re expecting materializes, we will know on Election Night if Democrats have flipped the US House.
In 2018, it was clear by 10 pm on Tuesday that Democrats were on the verge of flipping the House, most news networks did not officially call it until Wednesday morning. If things go the way we expect, networks can likely call the House when polls close at 9 pm ET.
Democrats were also working with a larger deficit in 2018—they needed a net gain of 23 seats. This year, Republicans hold 220 seats (including one Republican-turned-Independent and one vacancy) and Democrats hold 215 (including one vacancy), meaning they will only need to net three seats to meet the 218 vote threshold for controlling the House.
What We’ll Know the Next Day
In the case of a very large blue wave, we could know on Election Night if Democrats are likely to flip the Senate. However, it’s much more likely we’ll know the next day, once we have final results for Iowa, Ohio, Michigan and Texas.
What Might Take A While
Some states, like Florida, Iowa, New Jersey, and Virginia, allow early processing of absentee ballots and are known for quick results. Others like New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are known for being slower. California could take days if not weeks.
If control of the Senate comes down to Maine or Alaska, we will be in for a wait. That’s because both states use ranked choice voting. If no candidate clears 50 percent of the vote in the first round of tabulation, voters’ second choices are added into the rankings until a candidate clears 50 percent. Alaska will not tabulate ranked choice voting until Nov. 18, the deadline for all ballots to be received.