Today marks three weeks until Election Day. At the top of the ticket, the polls are pretty much where they have always been—showing a coin-flip race, with Kamala slightly ahead in national averages and the Blue Wall states (but not enough to feel any sort of confidence or relief).
It’s a different story down-ballot, with US House and Senate races changing rapidly, and a new gubernatorial race potentially sneaking into contention.
US Senate: Rust Belt Turning Red
Three weeks from Election Day, campaigns in the upper Midwest are sounding the alarm. This comes after a handful of late-September and early October polls have shown Senate races tightening across the country, but especially in this region that is critical to holding the Senate and winning the presidency.
Most troublingly, the Cook Political Report just shifted Tammy Baldwin’s Wisconsin race from Lean Democrat to Toss Up. They shifted Elissa Slotkin’s Michigan race from Lean Democrat to Toss Up this summer. Brand new polls in both states have the candidates tied or leading within the margin of error.
The good news? In Nevada and Maryland, the polls show Sen. Jacky Rosen and Prince George’s Executive Angela Alsobrooks pulling away from their opponents—sometimes by as much as double digits. And in Florida, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is within the margin of error against Sen. Rick Scott.
💰 Raising & Spending:
Slotkin reports $18M fundraising haul for U.S. Senate bid [The Detroit News]
Rosen raises $12.1 million in third quarter of Senate race, her best haul yet [NV Independent]
Brown raises close to $31M in competitive Ohio Senate race [The Hill]
Gallego rakes in close to $22M in third quarter for Arizona Senate race [The Hill]
Rick Scott places $10M in TV ads as the Florida Senate race enters homestretch [NBC News]
👥 Debate Watch:
Watch replay: Elissa Slotkin, Mike Rogers meet for first U.S. Senate debate [Detroit Free Press]
🔖 Bookmark: State of the Races [Electing Women Alliance]
📺 New Ads & Media:
The ‘secret sauce’ Sen. Tammy Baldwin hopes will propel her back to Washington [WPR]
Alsobrooks rolls out campaign ad featuring former Hogan voters [The Hill]
Barack Obama cuts new ads in major Senate races [NBC News]
📈 Pollercoaster:
GOP pollster: Harris and Rosen up in Nevada, voter ID in landslide [NV Independent]
Swing State Poll 2024: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin [Quinnipiac]
Wisconsin Senate Shifts From Lean Democrat To Toss Up [Cook Political Report]
Poll: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell trails Rick Scott by just 2 points [Marist]
📰 Analysis & News:
Democratic fears emerge on Wisconsin Senate race [Axios]
Donald Trump’s Candidates Keep Delivering…for Democrats [Vanity Fair]
US House: Battleground Cash Dump
The closest House races are shifting at a rapid pace, with no clear advantage to either Republicans or Democrats.
Much of this shift appears to be fueled by a massive influx of outside spending, mostly from GOP-aligned billionaires and corporate PACs on the Republican side. Most notably, Elon Musk’s American PAC has essentially taken financial control of House Republicans’ field operation—in so far as a super PAC can. Races we’re watching that Musk is targeting include:
- AK-At Large, Toss Up, Hold: $260,200 spent against Rep. Mary Peltola.
- CO-8, Toss Up, Hold: $335,200 spent against Rep. Yadira Caraveo.
- MI-8, Toss Up, Open-Hold: $291,500 spent against Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet.
- NJ-7, Toss Up, Flip: $557,800 spent against Democrat Sue Altman.
- OH-9, Lean D, Hold: $495,000 spent against Rep. Marcy Kaptur.
- OH-13, Toss Up, Hold: $618,900 spent against Rep. Emilia Sykes.
- WA-3, Toss Up, Hold: $380,100 spent against Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
NJ-7 is one of two races Cook recently moved toward Republicans. On the flip side, Cook has moved IA-1, where Christina Bohannan is in a rematch against Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, from Likely R to Toss Up in the span of a few weeks.
💰 Raising & Spending:
Scoop: Gillibrand hauls in 6-figures for embattled House Democrats [Axios]
👥 Debate Watch:
Alaska’s U.S. House candidates face each other three times in three days [AK Beacon]
The most memorable moments from the first debate between Caraveo and Evans [CO Sun]
Gluesenkamp Perez and Kent spar as poll shows rematch is a dead heat [WA State Standard]
Watch the replay: Juan Ciscomani vs. Kirsten Engel [AZ Luminaria]
📺 New Ads & Media:
Op-Ed Collection: Your View from Susan Wild [The Morning Call]
Fact-check: Attack ad against Oregon 5th District candidate Janelle Bynum [KGW8]
📈 Pollercoaster:
House Races Across the Midwest Move in Democrats’ Favor [Cook Political Report]
Close Races in NJ-07 and VA-07 Shift Toward Republicans [Cook Political Report]
The 2024 race to control the House couldn’t be tighter [538]
📰 Analysis & News:
Five Democrats in Trump Seats Attempt to Defy Political Gravity [Cook Political Report]
Another Wild Race Unfolds in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley [Cook Political Report]
How Democrats are targeting red seats in blue New York to help win back the House [NPR]
Elections analysts move 2 Iowa U.S. House races to ‘toss-up’ [Des Moines Register]
Michigan Fraternal Order of Police endorses Democrat in key congressional race [MI Advance]
State & Local: A New Gov Race in Play?
The Democratic Governors Association is infusing new cash into the Indiana governor’s race, after an internal poll from the group showed the race between Republican Sen. Mike Braun and former state Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick within three points. Independent polling, however, still has Braun outside the margin of error.
The momentum then trickled down to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which moved the race from Safe to Likely Republican in the first week of October. Driving this turn of fortune are a list of Republican missteps—including party delegates’ selection of a high-profile Christian nationalist pastor as Braun’s running mate. There is also a Libertarian candidate in the race who netted 11 percent of the vote running for governor in 2020.
Switching gears to state legislative races: Yesterday was Indigenous Peoples’ Day, and in celebration we dedicated our most recent 100-Day Down-Ballot giving slate to supporting Native women in the most competitive races—as well as Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who could become the first Indigenous woman governor.
🔖 Bookmark: 100-Day Down-Ballot Giving Plan [WomenCount]
💰 Raising & Spending:
Democrat group pumps $600,000 into Indiana governor race [IN Capital Chronicle]
Gun safety group Everytown pours $9 million into state legislative races [NBC News]
👥 Debate Watch:
Recap: Braun, McCormick and Rainwater face off in governor’s race debate. [IndyStar]
📺 New Ads & Media:
Why Is Trump Scared of the Media? Ft. Joyce Craig [Pod Save America]
The Navajo lawmaker bridging past and future [NM Source]
📈 Pollercoaster:
New Poll: McCormick within ‘striking distance’ before November election [FOX 59]
Indiana Governor Moves to the Edge of the Playing Field [Sabato’s Crystal Ball]
Poll shows Ayotte with slight lead over Craig in race for New Hampshire governor [WMUR]
📰 Analysis & News:
Why JD Vance is absent from key Ohio House campaigns [Politico]
Three states show how abortion, schools and taxes are at stake in legislature races [NPR]
3 Nevada Legislature races that could shift the state’s balance of power [LV Review-Journal]
Central WA’s $1 million race. This high-stakes contest has many biting their nails [Tri-City Herald]
National & Women: Major Media Blitz
VP Harris hit the airwaves hard this month, from a major prime-time interview with 60 Minutes to non-traditional media, including podcasts. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz did the same, live-streaming a rally on the video game platform Twitch while World of Warcraft played in the background.
It’s all part of a sprawling media strategy aimed at getting the VP and Gov. Walz in front of as many eyeballs as possible, especially low-propensity or swing voters whose choice is likely to decide the election. Trump’s campaign has been explicit about pursuing a high-risk, high-reward strategy of turning our low-propensity voters, and hopefully this media blitz from the Harris campaign will motivate some of those voters in the other direction.
🔖 Bookmark: Silver Bulletin Forecast (Nate Silver) Gift Article
💰 Raising & Spending:
Kamala Harris has raised $1 billion since launching presidential campaign [CNN]
Trump’s small-dollar donor fundraising is beset by confusion and fatigue [Associated Press]
Spending on 2024 federal elections projected to exceed previous record [Open Secrets]
📺 New Ads & Media:
Call Her Daddy 10/6/24 [Spotify]
Vice President Kamala Harris, Gov. Tim Walz 60 Minutes interview highlights [CBS]
The Late Show with Stephen Colber 10/8/24 [CBS]
Howard Stern 10/9/24 [YouTube]
Full Vice Presidential Debate [CBS]
📈 Pollercoaster:
Exclusive: Harris overtakes Trump among suburban voters [Reuters/Ipsos]
Poll Finds Harris Rising as She Challenges Trump on Change [The New York Times]
📰 Analysis & News:
Places to Watch, Part One: The Industrial North [Sabato’s Crystal Ball]
Places to Watch, Part Two: The Sun Belt [Sabato’s Crystal Ball]
Which way are key demographic groups leaning in the 2024 election? [538]
When you should panic about the polls [Silver Bulletin, Gift Article]