Mid-July 2022 Insider: Now Doubling Your Fun

Welcome to the beginning of our semi-monthly newsletter. From now through Election Day, you’ll receive the Electing Women Newsletter mid-month and then again on the last Wednesday of the month.

Celinda Lake, a top Democratic pollster and strategist, was our guest during last week’s monthly Electing Women Alliance national zoom. A summary of important points from her talk are posted on our website. Slides were emailed to all members after the call.

Other Research:

Navigator — Protecting Abortion Rights: A Guide for Advocates

US Senate

Democrats’ second-quarter fundraising totals are in, though Republican candidates are lagging in reporting, meaning we may not be able to make direct comparisons until later this month. And the numbers still show Democratic incumbent Senate men outraising incumbent women.

Meanwhile, aggregate polling still shows non-incumbents Cheri Beasley and Val Demings down against their Republican challengers, but the chatter among pollsters is that both have seen significant momentum since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision.

And pundits are not counting Sarah Godlewski out in Wisconsin’s August 9 primary, despite polls that show her in third place behind sports executive Alex Lasry and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. The undecided vote remains significant. She’s also strongest in head-to-heads against incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson.

Debate Schedule

Florida: 7-8 p.m., Tuesdays & Thursdays in October

We’ll update the schedules as more information becomes available.

Fundraising

Senate GOP super PAC raises $37.6 million in second quarter

Polls & Ratings

Latest Polls — FiveThirtyEight

Latest Ratings — Cook Political Report

Florida

Poll shows Marco Rubio leading Val Demings, but finds momentum for the Democrat

North Carolina

New Ads & Media Spots

North Carolina Senate hopeful Beasley calls out Democrats, Republicans in new ad

Val Demings, Marco Rubio square off over attendance records

Sarah Godlewski: ‘We need more pro-choice Democratic women’ in the U.S. Senate

Democrats push for campaign reset in the most pro-abortion rights swing state [NH]

You Can Move [WI]

Pod Save America — Interview with Catherine Cortez Masto

Other News

Godlewski campaign: Sees surging momentum five weeks before August Primary

Val Demings leads in fundraising, but polls favor Marco Rubio (for now)

Val Demings is on a mission

Cortez Masto bill aims to protect right to travel for abortion

CloseUp: GOP U.S. Senate primary a ‘jump ball’ [NH]

6 Awful GOP Candidates Who Could Save the Democratic Senate

GOP Senate hopefuls adopt a high-risk strategy for November

US House

August will be crowded with primaries—almost as many as June. Many of these primaries were pushed back from earlier in the year due to delayed census information and Congressional map drawing.

This glut of late-summer primaries includes a number of member vs. member races. The two we’re watching most closely are Rep. Carolyn Maloney versus Rep. Jerry Nadler in Manhattan and Rep. Haley Stevens versus Rep. Andy Levin in suburban Detroit. Both men jumped districts to compete in less-competitive primaries.

We also have one upcoming competitive Democratic House primary in Rhode Island where the retiring incumbent is trying to anoint his (male) successor. This seat (RI-2) is forecast to also be competitive in November.

Fundraising

Most Competitive General Election Races

Source: FEC.gov. All data current as of 7/18/22 at noon EDT.

Polls & Ratings

Latest Polls — FiveThirtyEight

Latest Ratings — Cook Political Report

RI-2

MI-7

New Ads

Kirsten Engel is First to Air Ad in CD6 Race

Why the millions of dollars Democrats spent in Colorado’s Republican primaries didn’t work

Second Axne campaign ad attacks Nunn over multiple incidents over the years at Adventureland

VoteVets unveils general election ad campaign of at least $20 million

Support Law Enforcement

News

Who’s running for Congress? A look at the Nov. field so far

‘Building a lot of relationships’: Davids campaigns for rural votes in redrawn district

Congressmembers Maloney, Nadler enter endorsement turf war

House GOP marches into deeper blue terrain as Dem prospects fade

Cory Booker backs Morgenthau for Langevin seat

Rep. Elaine Luria to lead upcoming Jan. 6 hearing

Rep. Spanberger backing bill to protect traveling for abortion care

Rep. Kim Schrier focuses on supply chain issues amid 8th District race

Seattle man faces hate crime charge after he’s accused of threatening Rep. Pramila Jayapal

State & Local

A “moderate” candidate—Karrin Taylor Robson—is surging in Arizona’s Republican primary, threatening Katie Hobbs’ competitiveness in the general election. Kari Lake—an extremist former media personality—would be easier to paint as extreme, but don’t be fooled: Both candidates are extreme, even if Robson is perceived as less so.

National news about a pregnant Ohio 10-year-old who was forced to travel to Indiana to get an abortion because of the state’s draconian 6-week abortion ban is roiling Ohio’s gubernatorial bid, possibly giving Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley an opening.

And a Kansas ballot initiative that would prohibit the state from recognizing a constitutional right to abortion will be the first direct test of the Dobbs decision’s electoral impact. Kansans will need to vote ‘NO’ on August 2 to maintain the Kansas Constitution’s current protections. There are a record number of abortion initiatives on state ballots this year.