The big story this month is Kansas, where voters defeated by a 2-to-1 margin a constitutional amendment that would have paved the way for an abortion ban. Here’s some quick intel on exactly what happened—and what it means for future races.
- Kansas voters reject effort to eliminate state abortion protections
- The Kansas Results Preview a Roadmap to Protect Abortion Access Around the Country
- After Kansas Referendum Fails, Here’s Where Else Abortion Will Be On The Ballot
- Messaging strategies that worked in Kansas
And in Congressional races, we’re starting to see evidence that the Dobbs decision is having a profound impact (more on that in the US House section below).
Plus, we’re looking ahead to upcoming primaries in:
- Florida (Aug. 23), where there’s a gubernatorial primary and two competitive US House primaries, in FL-27 and FL-23;
- New York (Aug. 23), where there are competitive House primaries in NY-22, NY-19, NY-17, NY-2 and NY-12, the Rep. Carolyn Maloney vs. Rep. Jerry Nadler race;
- Massachusetts (Sept. 6), where Attorney General Maura Healey is expected to be the gubernatorial nominee but there’s a tight race for attorney general;
- New Hampshire (Sept. 13), where we’re waiting to see which Republican will take on Sen. Maggie Hassan in November; and
- Rhode Island (Sept. 13), where there are man-vs-woman primaries for the governorship and RI-2.
US Senate
Holding the Senate is looking more likely for Democrats after a string of legislative victories, including the CHIPS and Science Act (protecting tech supply chains), the PACT Act (supporting veterans impacted by burn pits), and, of course, the Inflation Reduction Act, which will lower drug prices and carbon emissions.
Fundraising
Democrats are maintaining their fundraising edge as we reach the midpoint of Q3, the final full fundraising quarter before Election Day.
Polls & Ratings
Democrats have the best odds of holding the Senate since FiveThirtyEight debuted its Senate forecast, polling that shifted markedly in the final weeks of July, indicating the end of Roe may be a factor.
- Latest Polls — FiveThirtyEight; Senate Forecast
- Latest Ratings — Cook Political Report
New Ads & Media Spots
Senate GOP launches ads in two blue states Exclusive: Beasley blasts Budd in new campaign ad Ban Congress From Trading [Beasley ad] Seriously, Marco? [Demings ad against Rubio] No Spin [Senate Majority PAC ad attacking Budd]Other News
Analysis: Democrats score big wins on climate, drugs with $430 billion U.S. Senate bill Democrats betting on progressives to keep control of Senate U.S. Senate race in NC: The gender gap between Beasley and Budd North Carolina certifies the Green Party, which could allow it onto the Senate ballotWarren says she’s a ‘no’ on bipartisan bill that would protect abortion accessUS House
Two House special elections in the first half of August seem to signal that the Dobbs decision has changed the electoral landscape, at least for now. Although Republicans won both races, the margin in NE-1 was 6 points, down from the 15 points Trump won it by in 2020, and the margin in MN-1 was 4 points, compared with 10 points in 2020. Democratic turnout advantage is credited in both races. Women hoping to win or keep seats in the House also had a great first half of August. Vermont Senate President Pro-Tempore Becca Balint won the primary for the state’s lone US House seat. She’s likely to win in November, meaning Vermont will no longer be the only state never represented by a woman in Congress. Rep. Haley Stevens (MI-11) won her member-vs.-member primary against Rep. Andy Levin. She had focused her campaign on abortion and her status as the first woman to represent the district. Also in Michigan, Hillary Scholten (MI-3) will face Trump-backed John Gibbs in the general election, spurring the Cook Political Report to move this race from Toss Up to Lean D. And on Aug. 23, we’ll see whether Rep. Carolyn Maloney can notch a win against Rep. Jerry Nadler. Based on a recent poll, she’s in a tough position.
Polls & Ratings
Dems Gain Slightly in Congress Support Nadler Turns Tables on Maloney in NY-12 Congressional Primary with 9-Point Lead Latest Polls — FiveThirtyEight; House Forecast Latest Ratings — Cook Political ReportNew Ads & Media Spots
House Majority PAC Announces $19.9 Million in Additional Television Reservations No Brainer [Slotkin ad] Extreme [Schrier ad against Larkin] Slotkin ad against BarrettNews
Vulnerable House Dems see abortion as winning campaign theme Post-Roe special elections show potentially encouraging signs for Democrats Haley Stevens tells NBC News NOW she is ‘focused on the future’ for general Why a Michigan Democratic Political Dynasty Just Fell Inside the race to replace Congress’ first quadriplegic — and its effect on disability rights (RI-2) Yuh-Line Niou wants to become the first openly autistic member of Congress Minnesota 2nd District rematch between Craig and Kistner ‘a toss-up’ Becca Balint is likely to be Vermont’s first female and openly gay member of Congress Maloney, Nadler change tune on Biden reelection in latest debateState & Local
Next week will be a big one for statewide races on the Republican side, with implications for some of the closest gubernatorial races this year. We learned early this month that Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer will officially face Trump-backed Tudor Dixon—who opposes abortion rights even in cases of rape and incest—which will likely boost her already-improving odds of being re-elected this year. In Arizona, Trump-backed election denier and media personality Kari Lake—who has called abortion “the ultimate sin”—won the Republican primary, which also improves Secretary of State Katie Hobbs’ odds. Looking ahead, there are uphill battles for Agriculture Secretary Nikki Fried, who is facing Rep. Charlie Crist in the Florida gubernatorial primary in Aug. 23, and Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea, who is facing incumbent Gov. Dan McKee on Sept. 13. And in the Massachusetts gubernatorial race, current Attorney General Maura Healey is expected to win easily. But down ballot, Boston City Councilor Andrea Campbell (who has been endorsed by Maura) is in a close three-person race to replace her.Fundraising
