May 2023 Insider: Doubling the Number of Black Women (Ever) Elected to the Senate

May was a month for movement in open 2024 Senate contests and the most-contested 2024 House races, but still quiet in terms of challengers to at-risk Democratic incumbents. That pattern probably won’t hold long, but we’re happy while it lasts.

It was also a historic month for women down-ballot, with key wins in Florida, Pennsylvania—including a nail-biter of a special election—and Kentucky.

And the presidential race is kicking into gear. If you weren’t able to be on our introductory call and are interested in the Biden-Harris Donors as Raisers program, please email Annalise for more information: annalise@ewbayarea.org.

US Senate

We saw an explosion of potential pickups (well, two) for women in safe seats:

On May 9, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks declared her candidacy for Maryland’s open US Senate seat. She’s racking up dollars and endorsements, but still faces a major challenge from self-funder Rep. David Trone (MD-6). Rep. Jamie Raskin (MD-8) is also mulling a bid and could announce whether he’s running any day. Maryland has had no women in its Congressional delegation since 2017.
Last week, Sen. Tom Carper of Delaware announced his retirement, clearing the way for—and explicitly endorsing—Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester to run for the office this cycle. We’re expecting her official announcement soon. So far, she appears to have a clear path to the nomination, but we’re monitoring potential primary challengers in this safe Democratic seat.

If elected, Alsobrooks and Blunt Rochester, along with California Rep. Barbara Lee, would join a Senate that currently has no Black women. There have been only two in history: Carol Moseley Braun and Kamala Harris.

Plus, Rep. Elissa Slotkin got some competition in Michigan’s Democratic primary. Michigan State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh and former state Rep. Leslie Love—who are both Black—are running to replace retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow.

But there are still no serious challengers for incumbent Sens. Tammy Baldwin and Jacky Rosen, though it is still too early to count out such a possibility in a cycle that is predicted to be another tough one for Democrats.

US House

Interest in competitive 2024 House races is heating up, with new candidates popping up in Arizona, California, New York and Texas. Some candidates and races to keep an eye on:

AZ-1 (R+2), Marlene Galan-Woods
AZ-6 (R+3), Kirsten Engel
CA-40 R+2), Allyson Damikolas
CA-45 (D+2), Cheyenne Hunt and Kim Bernice Nguyen
CA-47 (D+3), Dom Jones and Joanna Weiss
NY-3 (D+2), Anna Kaplan
NY-4 (D+5), Laura Gillen and Sarah Hughes
NY-17 (D+3), Liz Gereghty
NY-22 (D+1), Sarah Klee Hood
TX-15 (R+1), Michelle Vallejo

New York and California are arguably the biggest prizes and key for winning back the House in 2024, with Democrats and Republicans targeting seven districts in the Empire State, six of which are considered flippable Republican-held seats, and nine districts in the Golden State, six of which are, again, Republican-held seats.

We’ll need to make the most of these winnable flips, because new redistricting developments in North Carolina could cut Democrats’ delegation there in half, with Rep. Kathy Manning’s (NC-6) seat likely impacted.

Polling & Analysis

Latest House Ratings [Cook Political Report]

2024 House Race Analysis: Delaware [Cook Political Report]

Trone Senate Run Moves MD-06 from Solid to Likely Democrat [Cook Political Report]

North Carolina Remap Could Cost Democrats Up to Four Seats in 2024 [Cook Political Report]

Partisan Gerrymandering Is Legal Again In North Carolina [FiveThirtyEight]

Key Race Developments

Defeated House challengers sign up to run again

Why the Arizona congressional race could tip control of U.S. House to Democrats

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s sister Liz Gereghty running for Congress in New York

Olympic gold-medal figure skater Sarah Hughes running for NY congressional seat

Carper Exit Could Pave Way for First Transgender Congress Member

Other News

Rep. Hillary Scholten wants Democrats to reclaim faith, freedom

In 2024 down-ballot races, GOP groups have early spending lead

Will a Democrat’s drunk-driving arrest in Sacramento shape control of Congress?

After taking NY for granted, Democrats have a new plan to win back the House in 2024

State & Local

Democratic women had a historic month in down-ballot races. The biggest news: Both Jacksonville, Florida, and Philadelphia elected their first female mayors.

Jacksonville voters elected Donna Deegan mayor with 52 percent of the vote, making her also the first Democratic mayor since 2015. This was considered a major upset in a race where the Republican was endorsed by Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Philadelphia voters nominated Cherelle Parker in the Democratic primary. Since Philly is a Democratic city, she is on track to be elected mayor. In fact, all three top finishers in the primary were women.

And also in the Keystone State, a woman helped hold off a Republican takeover in a special election for control of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives.

Women also cleaned up in Kentucky’s May 16 Democratic primary. State Rep. Pamela Stevenson ran unopposed for the attorney general nomination, while economic development consultant Sierra Enlow and tax attorney Kim Reeder won their races for agriculture commissioner and state auditor, respectively. Democrats have a credible chance to flip these offices, since most of them are open and Gov. Andy Beshear is popular.

Polling & Analysis

Washington Governor: Ferguson Leads Early Field to Succeed Inslee [Cook Political Report]

When State Law Defines ‘Man’ And ‘Woman,’ Who Gets Left Out? [FiveThirtyEight]

Key Race Developments

In a first, women poised to become mayors of Philadelphia and Jacksonville

How Democrats pulled off a big upset in Florida

Cherelle Parker’s keys to victory in Philly mayoral race: Door-knocking and individualism

Down-ballot races for Ky. agriculture commissioner, treasurer and auditor take shape

WA lands chief Hilary Franz kicks off campaign for governor as race takes shape

Democrats keep slim Pennsylvania House majority in special election win

News

Virginia is key to abortion access in the South. Its laws could hinge on this Democratic primary.

Unprecedented number of primaries prompt some Democrat angst [Virginia]

The Unexpected Women Blocking South Carolina’s Near-Total Abortion Ban

Group trying to gain official party status warned against misleading voters (Maine)

National & Women

Since the official announcement last month of the 2024 re-election campaign, our focus has been on emphasizing the campaign’s historic nature—it’s the first time we’ve had the chance to re-elect a woman on the presidential ticket—and using that fact to increase women’s fundraising participation through our new Donors as Raisers program.

We’re also watching several abortion rights ballot initiatives, including an Ohio initiative that could be on the ballot as soon as August of this year. Two others in right-leaning states, Florida and South Dakota, are likely to see initiatives next year—as long as Republicans don’t succeed in blocking citizen-led initiatives.