Democratic candidates up and down the ballot ramped up campaigning in March, with a slew of new ads and record fundraising coming in before the crucial first quarter deadline. But Republican opponents ramped up their attacks too.
A deeper look at results from the March 1st Texas primary shows progressives ascendant. In statewide races, governors and down-ballot candidates are taking center stage, while nationally, all eyes are on the Supreme Court confirmation proceedings.
US Senate
Republicans have started to hit incumbent Democrats with attack ads that focus squarely on gas and energy prices. Democrats are firing back with some of their first campaign ads of the cycle, touting progress on Covid relief and hitting Republicans for their focus on conspiracies.
Wisconsin Senate candidate Sarah Godlewski, the current state Treasurer, has gone up on the air with a big media buy. She’s counting on this exposure, along with new reporting that shows her a stronger general election candidate against Sen. Ron Johnson, to propel her ahead of her primary rivals Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes and Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry. The primary is in August.
We are continuing to see a multimillion-dollar fundraising gap between the incumbent men and women this cycle, especially between Sens. Raphael Warnock and Mark Kelly and Catherine Cortez Masto and Maggie Hassan. Consider this: For every dollar given to Warnock or Kelly, only 36 cents goes to Cortez Masto or Hassan. This data is supplied by OpenSecrets.
Judge Cheri Beasley and Rep. Val Demings are highlighted in a clapback to Axios reporting that questioned the viability of Black candidates. And we have two new entries into long-shot Senate races: former Rep. Kendra Horn in Oklahoma and Anheuser-Busch beer heiress Trudy Busch Valentine in Missouri.
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US House
One month out from the Texas primary, the verdict from political analysts is in, and it’s good news for progressives. They’re increasingly likely to win big in Democratic districts—where partisans on either side are increasingly unlikely to face credible challengers in the general elections, making this a crucial way for progressives to excise right-leaning Democrats. Moderate Democrats, however, continue to warn that this strategy will not work in swing districts.
Plus, Republicans are newly targeting an unlikely incumbent: Rep. Jahana Hayes (CT-5), whose once Solid-D race is moving into Lean-D/Toss-up territory. Jahana is one of the few “Frontline” Democrats—incumbents in the most competitive races—who raised less than $1 million in 2021, so she needs help to close this gap.
She is also one of the many women on the DCCC’s Frontline list, which puts women’s representation in Congress at stake. More than half of the most-vulnerable Democrats on the list are women; Rep. Hayes is one of few women of color. By contrast, 76 percent of Republican challengers to these incumbents are men.
But there’s good news too: Women on this list are raising slightly more on average compared to their male counterparts ($2.2 million to $2.1 million), but still have less cash on hand ($2.5 million to $3.1 million). These numbers represent totals raised in calendar year 2021.
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2022 Midterm Primary Election Calendar
See the latest House Race Ratings from Cook Political Report
State & Local
Statewide races heated up this month, with high-profile gubernatorial and down-ballot candidates making it official in Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Maine and Texas.
Stacey Abrams had a particularly busy month: In addition to being the only Democrat to qualify for the ballot, she sued Gov. Brian Kemp over sketchy fundraising practices, started a statewide tour, and dropped her first TV ad.
And we have some new research on the gender imbalance in state legislatures.
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Stacey Abrams makes it plain: ‘I did the work, and now I want the job.’
Abrams files lawsuit to use fundraising law meant to aid Kemp
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Watch Stacey Abrams’ first TV ad (AdMo)
Campaign Almanac: Deidre DeJear makes Iowa history in filing candidate paperwork
Iowa Poll: As 2022 governor’s race takes shape, Kim Reynolds leads Deidre DeJear
Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and the power of Republican women as party messengers
Janet Mills formally launches reelection campaign
She Defended Democracy. Do Voters Care? (Katie Hobbs)
Arizona’s secretary of state race: Why donors are so invested in 2022’s results
The Attorney General’s Race Is Texas Democrats’ Best Statewide Pickup Opportunity
Charted: Gender imbalance: Women in state legislatures, by party
Karen Bass takes lead in race to become L.A.’s next mayor, poll says
National
Nationally, the war in Ukraine and Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson’s confirmation hearings have dominated the political space. Vice President Kamala Harris traveled to Eastern Europe this month to show support for our allies, while Republicans previewed some of their most-racist 2022 political attacks when they questioned Judge Jackson.
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Questioning Judge Jackson, Republicans give a preview of attack lines in the November election.
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From millionaires to Muslims, small subgroups of the population seem much larger to many Americans
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Senate vote makes Shalanda Young first Black woman to lead White House budget office
Women
We saw two big think-pieces published this month on something we’ve likely all felt over the last few years, but that until now has been a “problem that has no name”: A growing lack of attention to women in political spaces, even as the issues that affect us most deeply have become the core of Republican political attacks. The pandemic, whose effects fell disproportionately on women, bears a lot of the blame.
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There Was Boundless Energy for Women Candidates in 2018. Now, Just Apathy.
New Research: The New Normal: Women, the Workplace, and Pandemic Politics
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For the 1st time, 2 women are seated behind the president during a State of the Union