June 15, 2024 Insider: Will SCOTUS Shake Up Primary Season?

This month we’re tracking a critical Republican primary in Nevada, a slew of House primaries that will be critical for Democrats’ chances at taking back the House—and preserving women’s representation in the process—and celebrating state legislative primaries in New Mexico.

But we’re also watching the Supreme Court, which is in its last scheduled month of releasing opinions. One critical case for abortion rights is in the pipeline and another was decided this week. Both decisions will have the biggest policy implications since Roe was overturned almost exactly two years ago.

US Senate: Cards on the Table in Nevada

It’s official: Sen. Jacky Rosen will face Army veteran Sam Brown in the general election. He won nearly 60 percent of the vote in this week’s Republican primary, after Donald Trump’s last-minute endorsement signaled support from the MAGA base.

That endorsement is likely to turbo-charge his Republican support in the fall—but could hurt him among independents and swing voters, who he’s been trying to court by taking a more moderate stance on abortion and keeping mum on Trump’s claims of election rigging.

Cook already rated Nevada’s US Senate race a toss up, and other ratings organizations followed suit soon after the returns were final, cementing Jacky’s place as one of our most-vulnerable incumbents heading into November. You can keep track of ratings across all election publications by bookmarking this aggregator from 270 to Win:

🔖Bookmark: 2024 Senate Election Forecast [270 to Win]

Headlines

Rosen hits Brown on abortion in new Nevada Senate ad [The Hill]

Inside Jacky Rosen’s Nevada Reelection Fight [Vanity Fair]

Brown to Take on Rosen in Nevada [Cook Political Report]

In Nevada Senate race, Democrats turn to a battle-tested abortion message [Washington Post]

We must enshrine our right to contraception before it’s too late [The Hill op-ed by Sen. Baldwin]

How Not To Lose Michigan, According to Senate Candidate Elissa Slotkin [The Daily Beast]

Rick Scott airs new ad declaring that his support for IVF is ‘personal’ to him [Florida Phoenix]

US House: May Debrief + June Preview

This progress to gender parity in May primaries extended down-ballot in Maryland. Victories by state Sen. Sarah Elfreth (MD-3) and April McClain Delaney (MD-6) in two open, safe Democratic seats—including the one being vacated by Rep. David Trone—mean the state is on track to go from having no women in its Congressional delegation to having three.

And on May 21, Oregon voters nominated state Rep. Maxine Dexter to the safe Democratic seat being vacated by Democratic US Rep. Earl Blumenauer, and Rep. Janelle Bynum to the toss up seat held by Republican US Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer. If she wins in November, Janelle will be the first Black person to represent Oregon in Congress.

June will be another busy primary month for women. Keep a close eye on Virginia—where women are running in crowded primaries for the Lean D seats being vacated by Reps. Abigail Spanberger (running for governor) and Jennifer Wexton (retiring)—plus New Jersey and New York, where women have a chance at the nomination in three toss-up, flippable seats.

Full June primary information is updated here:

🔖 Bookmark: Tracking the 2024 House Primaries [WomenCount]

Headlines

Six Months Out, Fight for Control Remains a Game of Inches [Cook Political Report]

National Democrats Get Their Favored Candidate in Battleground OR-05 [Cook Political Report]

New Jersey House Primary Preview [Cook Political Report]

Top GOP super PAC not spending in Vegas-area House races [NV Independent]

Your cheat sheet to Virginia’s June congressional primaries [Axios]

2024 New York congressional primaries to watch [City & State NY]

Which states could get new Congressional maps in 2024 [FiveThirtyEight]

State & Local: Women in State Legislative Primaries

As Congressional primaries heat up, so do state legislative primaries. Through WomenCount’s Women’s Political Parity project, we’re currently tracking eight states where women have a chance to make gains this year, including:

May 21 Primary

Georgia: Thirty-seven new women are needed to reach parity. Local partner Represent GA recruited women to run in 79% of targeted, competitive state legislative races, including four of six competitive Senate races and 22 out of 28 House races.
Oregon: Seven more women are needed for parity, and women are running in 50% of the open state legislative races. This includes one of six open Senate races and six out of eight open House races.

June 4 and 11 Primaries

New Mexico: Six more women are needed to reach legislative parity. Local partner Better Future for New Mexico has recruited women to run in 82 percent of the targeted, competitive state legislative races.
Nevada: Nevada was the first state in the nation to achieve gender parity in the state legislature, and we need to keep it that way. Women are running in 86% of targeted, competitive state legislative races.

You can learn more about the specific candidates we’re promoting on WomenCount:

🔖Bookmark: Women’s Political Parity: Georgia | Women’s Political Parity: Oregon

🔖Bookmark: Women’s Political Parity: New Mexico | Women’s Political Parity: Nevada

Headlines

Democratic OR incumbents win primaries, one race too close to call [OR Capital Chronicle]

Voters deliver upsets in GA House races; other contests headed to a June runoff [GA Recorder]

Race that could decide control of Nevada Senate features testy Dem primary [NV Current]

‘Mom’ legislators see numbers, influence grow but barriers to office remain [Source NM]

Here’s What Female Political Representation Looks Like in Your State [Cosmopolitan]

The friendships forged in a governors group chat [The 19th]

National & Women: Abortion at the Court

Supreme Court opinion season is rolling along, and we’re still waiting on two abortion cases that could transform the Presidential race:

FDA v. Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine, which could potentially restrict the availability of mifepristone—one of two ingredients in the “abortion pill,” and often used on its own to induce an abortion.
Idaho v. United States, wherein states are arguing that an abortion does not count as emergency medical care, contrary to federal law.