We’re bringing you a tightly curated newsletter to close out July, because you are already *very* familiar with the biggest news of the last two weeks: Kamala Harris is the presumptive Democratic nominee for president, and we’re all in.
Scroll to our National & Women section for a deep dive into her first week on the trail at the top of the ticket. But first—a full accounting of Senate and House second-quarter fundraising, and a first look at Arizona’s state legislative primaries.
US Senate: A Deeper Dive into Q2 Fundraising
But before that, a quick note about polling: Many Senate races that are longshots (Florida) have tightened significantly in the last week, and close races (Nevada and Michigan) are showing momentum for the Democrats. We can’t say for sure, but it doesn’t stretch the imagination to think that new energy at the top of the ticket is trickling down. Scroll past the graphs to the clips to see polling coverage.
In the first July newsletter we laid out the raw numbers on Q2 fundraising, but laid out visually you can see the contrast between male and female Senate candidates, especially on the Democratic side, with men—even those whose races are less competitive—edging out even the most competitive races featuring women. The trend gets even more stark when you look at expenditures (which takes into account massive self-funders like David Trone), and only slightly better viewing total cash-on-hand.
💰 Raising & Spending:
Alsobrooks, Hogan raising ‘a heck of a lot of money’ for Senate race [Maryland Matters]
Florida Democratic senate candidate sees VP Harris buzz impact [WFLA]
Money is flowing into down-ballot races, too [Politico]
📺 New Ads & Media:
Baldwin ad bashes Hovde over farmer comment [WISPolitics]
Angela Alsobrooks launches first TV ad in US Senate race against Larry Hogan [Baltimore Sun]
👥 Debate Watch:
Senator Jacky Rosen accepts October debate with GOP challenger [2 News NV]
Senate debate canceled, host station blames Democrat Hill Harper [Detroit News]
📈 Pollercoaster:
Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (22-24 July 2024) [Redfield & Wilson]
Slotkin holds 5-point lead over Rogers in Michigan U.S. Senate matchup [Detroit News]
US House: Full Q2 Numbers are Ready
Now that primary season is winding down, we’re reporting totals only in competitive general election races or competitive
Top 5 Q2 Fundraisers, Incumbents
- Toss-Up: PA-7, Susan Wild, $2.2 million
- Lean D: AK-AL, Mary Peltola, $2 million
- Toss-Up: WA-3, Marie Perez, $1.6 million
- Lean D: MN-2, Angie Craig, $1.4 million
- Toss-Up: CO-8, Yadira Caraveo, $1.2 million
Top 5 Q2 Fundraisers, Challengers
- Lean R: PA-10, Janelle Stelson, $1.6 million
- Toss-Up: OR-5, Janelle Bynum, $1.5 million
- Likely R: PA-1, Ashley Ehasz, $1.4 million
- Toss-Up: NJ-7, Sue Altman, $1l4 million
- Toss-Up: AZ-6, Kirsten Engel, $1.3 million
See all the numbers in the fifth tab of this spreadsheet:
🔖 Bookmark: Second-Quarter Fundraising | [Spreadsheet]
💰 Raising & Spending:
Harris’ Impact Across House Map Could Be Uneven [Cook Political Report]
Democratic Open House Seats: A Slight Shift to the Middle [Cook Political Report]
House Democrats’ hidden strength: Challenger fundraising [Politico]
👥 Debate Watch:
Susan Wild, Ryan Mackenzie agree to debate. Dates and times unclear [The Morning Call]
Chavez-DeRemer agrees to four TV debates with challenger Bynum [Oregon Capitol Chronicle]
📺 New Ads & Media:
State & Local: Arizona Primary Edition
Our partners at WomenCount supported 17 candidates for the Arizona legislature, prior to yesterday’s primaries. Only one more woman needed to gain a seat for the state to achieve gender parity, and looking at the primary results, we’re confident Arizona will get there in November. Women ran in 69 percent of the targeted, competitive state legislative races, including four of five competitive Senate races and seven out of 11 House races.
Here are some key races, and where they stand going forward:
- House District 2: Deer Valley school board member Stephanie Simacek became the official nominee to hold this competitive, open Democratic seat.
- House District 4: Kelli Butler and Karen Gresham became the official nominees to hold an open Democratic seat and flip a Republican one. Arizona has multi-member House districts.
- House District 8: As of noon on Wednesday, this race is too close to call, with Janeen Connolly looking to hold this open, safe D seat for women.
- House District 13: Forensic scientist Brandy Reese became the official nominee in this competitive, open, Democratic- and woman-held seat.
- Senate District 2: House Rep. Judy Schwiebert became the official nominee to challenge the Republican incumbent in this Lean R district.
- Senate District 13: Author and educator Sharon Winters became the official nominee in this Lean D district currently held by Republicans, making it a likely pickup for women and Democrats in November.
- Senate District 16: Casa Grande activist Stacy Seaman became the official nominee in this Lean R district Democrats are looking to flip.
- Senate District 24: State Rep. Analise Ortiz cruised to victory in this open, safe D district, holding this seat for women.
📰 Headlines:
Arizona Primary Election Results [The New York Times]
2024 Arizona Primary Election Results [AZ Central]
Why, as a Republican mayor, I support Kamala Harris over Trump [AZ Central]
National & Women: Kamala Harris for President
So far this cycle, the Electing Women Alliance and our member groups have raised more than $8 million for Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign. The campaign itself has raised $200 million and counting, with more than 66 percent coming from new 2024 donors, since Kamala ascended to the top of the ticket last week.
Yes, it’s only been a week—but it feels like a month! Below are all of the articles, ads and campaign materials we’ve collected over the last week that we think are worth passing on.
👨🏻💼 Veepstakes:
What Top Prospects Could Bring to the Harris Ticket [Cook Political Report]
The Quiet Bond Kamala Harris Forged With Three V.P. Contenders [The New York Times]
📺 New Ads & Media:
Kamala’s First 2024 Campaign Ad [YouTube]
Kamala’s First 2020 Campaign Ad, “The Antidote to Trump” [YouTube]
Kamala Harris on Being an Early Co-Founder of WomenCount [YouTube, Audio Only]
📈 Pollercoaster:
Latest Polls, Generic Presidential Ballot [FiveThirtyEight]
Harris vs. Trump polls [The Hill | DDHQ]
The election has been totally upended. Here’s what the polls show. [Politico]
What the Polls Tell Us About Harris vs. Trump [The New York Times]
👀 Alliance Eyes Only
The Path to Victory for Kamala Harris, Harris for President Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon [PDF]
Winning the White House with VP Kamala Harris, Emily’s List [PDF]