Note: We don’t yet know how the attempted assassination of Donald Trump will affect the race, and we’re not going to speculate. We’re going to stay focused on supporting women as the national conversation unfolds and as Democrats continue to debate how best to win in November. In this newsletter, you will find the most up-to-date information on how women are faring up and down the ballot, as of July 15, 2024.
It would be an understatement to say that the 2024 election has been upended in the last three weeks but we are staying focused on our mission: closing the political gender giving gap and electing more Democratic women up and down the ticket.
There’s a lot of news on that front, though you might have missed it given what’s going on at the top of both presidential tickets.
US Senate: Second Quarter Fundraising Preview
Second quarter FEC reports were due yesterday, and even though women candidates are posting their biggest hauls of the year—and in some cases breaking records—men are still outraising them on average in similarly competitive races. And one critical race—in Michigan—moved from Lean D to Toss-up in the wake of the presidential debate.
Lean D Races (Cook)
- Tammy Baldwin, WI: $6 million
- Ruben Gallego, AZ: $10.4 million
- Bob Casey, PA: $8 million
Toss-Up Races (Cook)
- Jacky Rosen, NV: $7.6 million
- Elissa Slotkin, MI: $6.5 million
- John Tester, MT: $10.6 million
- Sherrod Brown, OH: $12.4 million
Likely R Races (Cook)
- Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, FL: $4.8 million
- Colin Allred, TX: $10.5 million
🔖 Bookmark: Second-Quarter Fundraising | [Spreadsheet]
💰Raising & Spending:
Jacky Rosen raises record $7.6 million in second quarter [NV Independent]
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell raises nearly $5M in Q2 [FL Politics]
Slotkin reports over $6M haul for U.S. Senate bid in Michigan [The Detroit News]
Democratic Senate candidates see fundraising boom even as Biden campaign loses donors [ABC News]
📺 New Ads & Media:
Rep. Slotkin says it’s time to stop ‘playing defense on democracy’ [MI Advance]
Elissa Slotkin makes massive ad buy in flex of fundraising [ABC News]
Taking Stock of the Senate Ad Wars: Veterans Issues, Immigration [Cook Political Report]
📈 Pollercoaster:
Baldwin outruns Biden in Senate polling [Politico]
Scoop: Senate GOP sees deep blue Maryland seat within reach [Axios]
US House: Summer Break—Interrupted
There are no more primaries until July 30, when we’re watching three primaries:
- AZ-3, Solid D, Hold: This is the seat vacated by Rep. Ruben Galleger, who’s running for US Senate. Both primary front runners are women: Phoenix Vice Mayor Yassamin Ansari and former state Sen. Raquel Terán, who is favored.
- AZ-1, Toss Up, Flip: This is a competitive Democratic primary to take on incumbent Rep. David Schweikert. All four candidates—Marlene Galán-Woods is the only woman—are polling in the teens within the margin of error.
- AZ-6, Toss Up, Flip: Kirsten Engel is the presumptive Democratic nominee to face freshman incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani.
But a primary hiatus doesn’t mean Congressional candidates have hit summer doldrums. A flurry of caucus meetings and requests for comment on the presidential race have superseded what would usually be a quiet period in campaign season. Candidates in toss-up races who have given statements on whether President Biden should remain in the race include:
- Yadira Caraveo, CO-8: “I think the question of, is he capable of getting through four years of the presidency or becoming president again, that’s up to the voters.”
- Susan Wild, PA-7: “I expressed the same concerns that Americans across the country … are grappling with, about President Biden’s electability at the top of the ticket.”
- Marie Gluesenkamp Perez: “We all saw what we saw, you can’t undo that, and the truth I think, is that Biden is going to lose to Trump.”
🔖 Bookmark: The Democrats calling on Biden to drop out of the 2024 election [The Washington Post]
📰 Headlines:
Extent of Biden’s Drag on House Democrats Remains Uncertain [Cook Political Report]
Sherrill calls on Biden to drop out of presidential race [NJ Globe]
Angie Craig becomes first battleground Dem to call for Biden to withdraw [Politico]
Lee, Horsford split on confidence in Biden as Democratic nominee [NV Independent]
Among CT’s congressional delegation, muted support for Biden [CT Mirror]
Yadira Caraveo says it’s ‘up to the voters’ whether Biden is capable of serving [CO Politics]
Should Biden drop out of the race? WA’s members of Congress weigh in [WA State Standard]
State & Local: Three New Target States
Our partners at WomenCount have added three more states to their Women’s Political Parity Project tracking legislatures where women have the chance to reach parity or make extensive gains this year.
- Tennessee: Forty-seven more women are needed to reach a majority of women state legislators. The political landscape is challenging, though women were recruited and prioritized in the two open seats held by Democrat men not seeking re-election.
- Washington: Six more women are needed to reach a majority of women state legislators. Eleven women have been recruited to run in primaries where women must hold Democratic seats or can flip Republican ones.
- Wisconsin: Twenty-seven more women are needed to reach a majority of women state legislators. Nineteen key districts have women running. There are three likely gains for women, and five seats are likely holds.
🔖 Bookmarks:
Women’s Political Parity | Tennessee FAQ [WomenCount]
Women’s Political Parity | Washington FAQ [WomenCount]
Women’s Political Parity | Wisconsin FAQ [WomenCount]
National & Women: Kamala to the Front
After last month’s game-changing debate, it seems like Vice President Kamala Harris has dramatically increased her time on the campaign trail. But this isn’t a totally new trend. Since this spring, the Biden-Harris campaign has increasingly called on her to showcase her prosecutorial chops against the convicted felon on the other side, and make the case for our most winning issue—abortion rights.
This is a welcome change from her first three years in office, when it seemed the only coverage of her was negative. Now that she’s getting some good takes, we wanted to showcase a few that have made the case for her as the asset to the presidential ticket that we’ve always known she is.
On no issue is this more clear than abortion. Last Thursday, representatives from Emily’s List briefed our members with new polling that shows in the battlegrounds of Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, abortion is the only issue on which Democrats have a clear advantage over Republicans. Their polling also shows that Kamala is the campaign’s best messenger on this issue.
🔖 Bookmark: Winning the White House with Vice President Kamala Harris (PDF) [Emily’s List]
👩🏾💼 Kamala Watch:
Is Kamala the One? [The Nation]
Kamala Harris walks into the storm — and keeps her footing [The Washington Post]
How Kamala Harris’s awkward moments became internet gold [The Washington Post]
Kamala Harris Is Democrats’ Future No Matter What [Bloomberg]
📈 Pollercoaster:
Do Americans approve or disapprove of Kamala Harris? [FiveThirtyEight]
Would Kamala Harris be a stronger candidate than Biden? [FiveThirtyEight]
What the Democrats doubting Biden have in common [FiveThirtyEight]
Six States Move Toward Trump in Electoral College Ratings [Cook Political Report]
📺 New Ads & Media:
Republicans Are Already Running Against Kamala Harris [Mother Jones]