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January 31, 2024

January 2024 Insider #2: A Closer Look at Q1 Numbers

Megan Clayton
  • Insider

To close out January, we have some more Q4 fundraising numbers for you, a primer on the first Congressional primaries—which are about a month away—and an update on where abortion ballot initiatives stand in states that aren’t Florida.

US Senate: Another Pass at Q4 Numbers

We finally have the numbers for the seven most-competitive Senate races (rated Lean D or Toss Up by Cook), and can confirm what we expected: The men are once again outraising the women by vast amounts: 

  • Jacky Rosen (NV), $3.2 million
  • Tammy Baldwin (WI), $3 million

= $3.1 million average 

  • Sherrod Brown (OH), $6.6 million
  • Jon Tester (MT), $5.5 million

= $6 million average

This is not a new trend: Last cycle we saw vulnerable incumbent men outraise women incumbents by 2 to 1. 

We will have full 2023 numbers for the House and Senate, including Q4 raise, total cycle contributions, total cycle expenditures, and ending cash-on-hand, by the end of the first week of February. All federal candidate committee reports are due January 31. 

🔖Bookmark: FEC Report Tracking: House & Senate [Electing Women]

Headlines

What you need to know from the high-stakes U.S. Senate debate [Cal Matters]

[POLL] Schiff and Garvey Gain Support in Crowded Primary [Emerson]

Why Katie Porter should root for a big Trump win in New Hampshire [Politico]

Congresswoman Lee shares experience dealing with racism at Capitol [CNN]

Rosen: We must keep fighting for reproductive freedom in a post-Roe world [Las Vegas Sun]

Sen. Baldwin on abortion rights: ‘Can’t stop fighting’ until Roe is ‘law of the land’ [MSNBC]

Biden sends floral bouquet, video message to Ted Blunt’s memorial [Delaware Online]

Alsobrooks Sets Maryland Fundraising Record for U.S. Senate Bid [Washington Informer]

Mucarsel-Powell: After Roe decision, Floridians are ready to reject abortion bans [Miami Herald]

Tammy Murphy and the Nepo State [NY Magazine]

 

US House: Previewing the First Primaries 

The first primaries—including elections in California and Texas that will be key to increasing women’s representation in Congress and taking back the House of Representatives—are a little over a month away, on March 5. Watch these 10 races over the next 34 days:

  • CA-16, Solid D, Open: In the crowded primary to replace Rep. Anna Eshoo, Julie Lythcott-Haims is the underdog but could break through as the only woman in the race. 

  • CA-45, Lean R, Flip: Kim Nguyen-Penaloza is the frontrunner to win the primary and hopefully flip this district, currently held by Rep. Michelle Steele.

  • TX-18, Solid D, Challenge: Amanda Edwards is vying to unseat Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, who re-entered this race after losing her bid for Houston mayor. Either way, this seat will continue to be represented by a Black woman.

View the full list on our website. 

🔖Bookmark: 2024 US House Elections Tracker [Electing Women]

Headlines

California’s marquee Senate race could be bad news for down ballot Dems [Politico]

Fearing November lockout, DCCC boosts one Dem for California seat [Politico]

California Sets Special Primary for McCarthy’s US House Seat on March 19 [US News]

3 trends to watch in the 2024 Texas primary elections [Houston Chronicle]

Judge blocks tighter rule on same-day registration in North Carolina elections [Washington Post]

[POLL] Internal poll gives Kean modest early general election lead [NJ Globe]

Tech Executive Enters Democratic Primary in 5th Congressional District [Willamette Week]

Former Nevada Treasurer Enters Congressional Race to Challenge Susie Lee [The NV Globe]

Democratic field narrows in bid to oust Rep. Derrick Van Orden [Milwaukee Journal Sentinel]

Abortion Activism

State & Local: An Explosion of Abortion Ballot Actions 

Abortion ballot initiatives are popping off this month. In addition to Floridians Protecting Freedom collecting enough signatures to put abortion on the ballot in the Sunshine State this year, five other states saw similar progress this month:   

  • Arizona: Advocates have collected 250,000 of the 383,923 signatures needed by July 3.
     
  • Arkansas: The state attorney general certified the ballot initiative. Advocates have until July 5 to collect 90,704 signatures.

  • Colorado: A campaign launched to collect 124,000 signatures by April 26. 

  • Missouri: A campaign launched to collect 172,000 signatures by May 5.

  • Nevada: A judge greenlit the ballot initiative. Advocates will need to collect 102,000 signatures by June 26. 

🔖Bookmark: Abortion Ballot Tracker: Where Your State Stands on Codifying Reproductive Rights [ReWire]

Headlines

Supporters get 250,000 signatures for Arizona abortion ballot initiative [PHX News Times]

Phony Originalism Could Cost Florida Women Their Abortion Rights [Slate]

We’re still waiting for FL Supreme Court to decide about abortion rights [Florida Phoenix]

To roll back Missouri’s abortion ban, a new ballot campaign needs 171,000 signatures [KCUR]

Montana’s Abortion Ballot Measure Is The Latest Facing GOP Resistance [Forbes]

Nevada judge approves petition to put abortion rights on 2024 ballot [ABC News]

Reproductive justice coalition launches campaign to put abortion access in Colorado Constitution [Colorado Newsline]

National & Women: Kamala’s Abortion Tour Kicks Off

The Vice President hit the campaign trail in earnest this month, kicking off her abortion rights tour in Waukesha County, Wisconsin on January 22, what would have been the 51st anniversary of Roe v. Wade. The following day, the Vice President and President met in Virginia to give what sounded remarkably like a campaign kickoff speech, leaning heavily on Trump’s threat to freedom generally and abortion rights specifically.  

Meanwhile, Trump cemented his hold on the Republican nomination with an 11-point victory in the New Hampshire primary last week, on top of the 30-point drubbing he gave rivals in Iowa earlier this month. 

🔖Bookmark: Remarks by Vice President Harris to Kick Off Nationwide “Fight for Reproductive Freedoms” Tour [The White House]

Kamala Watch

Biden and Harris Target Abortion Laws, and Trump, on Roe’s 51st Anniversary [NYT]

Vice President Kamala Harris voices support for abortion access at Wisconsin visit [WPR]

Biden and Harris paint Trump as freedom’s enemy at abortion rally in Virginia [AP]

Exclusive: Harris to visit East Las Vegas to kick off Nevada early voting [Nevada Independent]

Kamala Harris becomes the Biden campaign’s voice on some of its most central issues [CNN]

Kamala Harris reacts to Texas rape-related pregnancies report: ‘Extreme and oppressive’ [Houston Chronicle]

🔖Bookmark: FACT SHEET: White House Task Force on Reproductive Healthcare Access Announces New Actions and Marks the 51st Anniversary of Roe v. Wade

Other Headlines

Tracking the major 14th Amendment efforts to remove Trump from the 2024 ballot [CNN]

[POLL] Poll shows Biden opening lead on Trump in Pennsylvania [Pittsburgh Post-Gazette]

[POLL] Trump opens up lead over Biden in rematch many Americans don’t want [Reuters]

Biden Has a Michigan Problem, Endangering His Re-Election [The Wall Street Journal]

Tags:2024 elections, abortion, Kamala Harris, primary elections, quarterly fundraising
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