We’ve made it a little more than a month through the second Trump presidency. At the end of this newsletter, we’ll take a look at what elected Democrats are doing to push back on his agenda.
But first, new race ratings for the 2026 Congressional elections and the 2025 state legislative elections in Virginia.
US Senate: First Look at 2026
The Cook Political Report released its first ratings of the cycle this month, and they’re projecting six competitive races:
- Georgia and Michigan (both Democrat-held toss ups);
- Minnesota and New Hampshire (both Democrat-held leaning D), and
- Maine and North Carolina (both Republican-held leaning R).
Democratic women are already or expected to compete in three of these:
- Michigan: Incumbent Democrat Gary Peters is retiring. So far, no one has officially declared, but state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, US Rep. Haley Stevens and former US Sec. of Transportation Pete Buttigieg are all considering runs. Given Michigan’s competitiveness, and its late primary (August 2026), state leaders are working to coalesce behind a frontrunning candidate and avoid an expensive and potentially bruising primary.
- Minnesota: Incumbent Democrat Tina Smith is retiring. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has already declared. US Reps. Angie Craig and Ilhan Omar, and state Attorney General Keith Ellison, are also considering runs. Gov. Tim Walz announced this week he will not seek the Senate seat and is still considering whether to run for re-election to a third term.
- New Hampshire: Incumbent Democrat Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who was first elected in 2008, has already filed paperwork to run for a fourth term. Former Republican US Senator from Massachusetts Scott Brown—who was the nominee for this seat in 2014—has expressed interest.
🔖 Bookmark: 2026 Senate Race Ratings [Cook Political Report]
📰 Analysis & News:
Vulnerable lawmakers begin 2026 cycle with modest war chests [Roll Call]
Few Opportunities for Democrats to Claw Back Majority [Cook Political Report]
Republicans Start as Strong Favorites to Hold Majority [Sabato’s Crystal Ball]
Full interview: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan” [CBS News]
Flanagan in for U.S. Senate seat; Walz, Omar and Craig said to be interested [MN Reformer]
Analysis rates Michigan’s 2026 U.S. Senate race as early ‘toss-up’ [MI Advance]
The Truth About Democrats, According to Amy Klobuchar [NY Times]
US House: First Look at 2026, Cont.
Cook has also released its House ratings. We start the cycle with 18 toss up seats—10 Democratic and 8 Republican—and an additional 21 lean races—12 Democratic and 9 Republican. Of the 22 most vulnerable Democrats, only 8 are women, which is a smaller percentage compared to men than we’ve seen in previous cycles. We are gratified about that!
We’re currently watching:
Toss Ups
- New York 4, Rep. Laura Gillen, freshman first elected last year
- New York 17, Beth Davidson, challenging incumbent Rep. Mark Lawler
- Ohio 13, Rep. Emilia Sykes, first elected in 2022
- Ohio 9, Rep. Marcy Kaptur, first elected in 1982 (she is the longest-serving woman in the House)
- Washington 3, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez, first elected in 2022
Lean D
- Michigan 8, Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet, first elected last year
- Nevada 3, Rep. Susie Lee, first elected in 2018
- New Jersey 9, Rep. Nellie Pou, first elected last year
- Oregon 5, Rep. Janelle Bynum, first elected last year
If you know a woman who is planning to run in a competitive Republican-held House seat, please send us a tip: info@electingwomen.org.
Safe D
- Arizona 7, Incumbent Rep. Raúl Grijalva is retiring; Tucson Mayor Regina Romero is said to be considering a run
🔖 Bookmark: 2026 House Race Ratings [Cook Political Report]
📰 Analysis & News:
Another Knife Fight for the Majority [Cook Political Report]
Sun Belt Showdowns on the Horizon [Cook Political Report]
House Democratic Super PAC Creates $50 Million Fund Targeting Working Class [NY Times]
As a G.O.P. Congressman Takes Aim at Hochul, a Democrat Eyes His Seat [NY Times]
Gillen: U.S. needs to ‘get more hawkish and get more aggressive against Iran’ [Jewish Insider]
Rep. Janelle Bynum on what it means to be a ‘disrupter’ [Roll Call]
Four members of Congress have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026 [Ballotpedia]
Voting in House dipped in 2024 as several members dealt with health issues [Roll Call]
State & Local: VA Elections
In addition to the Virginia governorship (currently rated a toss up), all 100 House of Delegates districts have elections this year, giving Democrats the opportunity not only to flip the Commonwealth’s top office, but also to increase their majority in the House. Democrats currently have a two-seat majority in both chambers.
The competitive districts to watch, currently, are:
Incumbents
- District 20, Lean D, Del. Michelle Maldonado
- District 55, Lean D, Del. Amy Laufer
- District 70, Lean D, Del. Shelly Simonds
- Distinct 96, Lean D, Del. Kelly Fowler
Challengers
- District 22, Lean R
- District 37, Lean R
- District 41, Lean R/Rematch, Lily Franklin
- District 57, Lean R
- District 66, Lean R
- District 71, Lean R/Rematch, Jessica Anderson
- District 82, Toss Up/Rematch, Kimberly Pope Adams
- District 89, Lean R, Open
You can give to these candidates now via WomenCount. We are still watching for developments in the open and flippable seats. The filing deadline is not until April.
🔖 Bookmark: 2025 Virginia Legislature [WomenCount]
This month we also welcomed a new entrant into the field of candidates running for governor: Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland announced she’s running for New Mexico governor in 2026. Current Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is term-limited.
🔖 Bookmark: Governors Against Trump [WomenCount]
📰 Analysis & News:
Haaland Rapidly Rallies Democrats Around New Mexico Governor Bid [Cook Political Report]
Crowded New Jersey Governor Debates Get the Parties Started [Cook Political Report]
Liberal Vets Group Gives Spanberger Boost in Virginia Governor’s Race [NY Times]
2025 Virginia governor’s race and a General Assembly roundup [VA Public Media]
The ‘whisper-network’ readies a state-level resistance to Trump [Politico]
National & Women: How Dems Are Fighting Trump
Without a majority in the House or Senate, there is not a lot that Democratic members of Congress can do to stop Trump’s mad power grab.
They can, however, slow things down. In late January, Senate Democrats started stalling confirmation of Trump’s nominees by requiring them to go through the full voting process, instead of parliamentary shortcuts that are often used to confirm presidential nominees. They also forced an all-night vote on the budget bill passed last week. And Sens. Amy Klobuchar and Cory Booker will lead a special task force charged with responding to Trump’s actions.
House Democrats have even less leverage, but were able to force a lengthy process when the House voted Tuesday on its own version of the budget. Every Democrat voted against the bill; Rep. Brittany Pettersen even traveled from Colorado with her newborn to complete the 215 ‘nay’ votes.
And in the states, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is using the special election to replace UN Ambassador nominee Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY-21) as political leverage, and Maine Gov. Janet Mills is pushing back on Trump’s attacks on trans youth, explicitly telling him, “I’ll see you in court.”
While these actions may not stop any of Trump and Congressional Republicans’ plans, every moment they have to waste going through the legislative and legal processes is a moment when their nominees and policies aren’t actively harming people.
📰 Analysis & News:
Senate Dems Hold Floor In All-Night Protest of Trump’s OMB Nominee [Democracy Docket]
Senate Passes G.O.P. Budget Plan After Democrats Force Long Night of Votes [NY Times]
Rep. Brittany Pettersen brings newborn with her for close House vote [CO Public Radio]
Two Dem lawmakers barge into House speaker’s office in backlash against Musk [Politico]
House Democrats are ramping up their attacks on the GOP agenda [Politico]
Hochul’s special election leverage [Politico]
Read Gov. Mills’ full statement on Trump investigation [Portland Press Herald]
Gov. Mills stood up for Mainers and for state law [ME Morning Star]
What Happens If Trump Defies Court Orders? [Democracy Docket]