Primary season is picking up again after the July lull. The big race is the Aug. 9 Senate primary in Wisconsin. Below is a rundown of other key races to watch in each state, either featuring or impacting our Democratic women candidates.

August 2

Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary
Kansas abortion referendum
Michigan Republican gubernatorial primary, Democratic member-vs.-member primary in MI-11, Republican primary in MI-3

August 9

Wisconsin Democratic Senate primary
Vermont at-large Congressional race
Florida Democratic gubernatorial primary

August 23

New York Congressional primaries, including two member-vs.-member races

US Senate: Focus on Wisconsin

Sarah Godlewski is the underdog in the upcoming Wisconsin race, but still has a chance given the chaotic and shifting primary landscape. Remember, we’ve seen no polling since the Dobbs decision came down or since last week’s debate, two areas where Sarah has the advantage. Women candidates generally have the edge when discussing abortion, as we saw from Celinda Lake’s research.

Alex Lasry and Tom Nelson both dropped out of the race this week, meaning the Aug 9 primary will essentially be a head-to-head between Sarah and Lieutenant Gov. Mandela Barnes. While Barnes is the clear frontrunner and now has endorsements from both Lasry and Nelson, polls have consistently shown the undecided vote remaining high.

Sarah came out swinging during the July 17 debate, criticizing her male primary rivals for not making abortion rights a larger part of their campaign. No other primary debates are scheduled.

Fundraising

Complete second-quarter fundraising reports and updated cycle totals have finally been posted for all candidates, and still show Democrats with a clear raising-and-spending advantage.

Source: FEC.gov. All data current as of 7/27/22 at noon EDT.

Polls & Ratings

FiveThirtyEight’s updated Senate forecast has Democrats with a slight edge to win control of the chamber, though the outcome is still essentially a toss up. Catherine Cortez Masto’s race in Nevada remains the single most-competitive Senate race in the country.

WA Poll shows Patty Murray up big over Tiffany Smiley

Latest Polls — FiveThirtyEight, Senate Forecast
Latest Ratings — Cook Political Report

New Ads & Media Spots

Ron Johnson – Wrong for Women

Some GOP Senate candidates have yet to run general election ads as Democrats spend early

Other News

Maggie Hassan’s lucky break

In Nevada, a Democratic senator tries to fend off GOP momentum on the economy

Sen. Murray seeks 6th term at new inflection point for women

US House

We’re sad to report that former Congresswoman Donna Edwards lost the July 19 primary to reclaim her former 4th district seat, meaning Maryland will continue to have no women in its Congressional delegation.

Two other women—Haley Stevens in MI-11 and Carolyn Maloney in NY-12—are also facing tough fights in member-vs.-member primaries against men. AIPAC has been spending heavily to support Haley, causing some controversy, while Carolyn is hitting back with a new ad positioning herself as a champion of women’s rights.

And Vermont is poised to send its first woman to Congress, when voters choose between Lieutenant Gov. Molly Gray and Vermont Senate Pro-Tempore Becca Balint on Aug. 9.

Fundraising

Most Competitive General Election Races

Dueling polls show [Sean] Maloney with sizable lead over Biaggi in New York primary

Latest Polls — FiveThirtyEight; House Forecast
Latest Ratings — Cook Political Report

New Ads & Media Spots

Maloney highlights gender equity fight in first ad in primary against Nadler

Cover Up [Elaine Luria]

Secession [Marcy Kaptur]

How some House Dems are trying to outrun a potential red wave

“Handpicked” [Democratic ad against John Gibbs in MI-03]

Other News

House passes bills to protect abortion access following Roe reversal

Opinion: Stevens, Marlinga best choices for Congress in Democratic primaries

Glenn Ivey defeats Donna Edwards in Democratic primary for Maryland’s 4th District, CNN projects

House Dems try to sink pro-impeachment Republican in primary

Battles over Israel divide Democratic primaries [Stevens vs. Levin]

Black Districts Gutted as Suburban Flight Reshapes Congress Maps

State & Local

Next week will be a big one for statewide races on the Republican side, with implications for some of the closest gubernatorial races this year.

In Arizona, Trump-backed gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and Pence-backed Karrin Taylor Robson are locked in a fierce battle to take on Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs. Arizona represents one of several opportunities for Democratic women to pick up governorships this year, but those chances go down if the more “moderate” Taylor Robson is the Republican nominee.

The Oregon gubernatorial race is too close for comfort, with recent internal polling showing Tina Kotek with a tight 2 point lead against Christine Drazan (37% to 35%), and independent Betsy Johnson with the potential to be a spoiler at 23%.

Chaos in Michigan’s Republican primary has increased the chances that Gretchen Whitmer will win re-election this year. Her likely Republican opponent, Tudor Dixon, is an anti-choice extremist who’s been endorsed by the DeVos family.

And finally, voters in Kansas head to the polls to decide whether the right to abortion will be preserved in the state constitution.

Debate Schedule

Insults fly as Crist, Fried clash during Florida Democratic debate

Georgia: 7 p.m., Monday, Oct. 17 & Sunday, Oct. 30
Oregon: 2 p.m. (Pacific Time), Friday, July 29 *TODAY*

Fundraising

Democratic gubernatorial nominees have big edge in ad spending across battleground

Source: Campaign finance databases in AZ, GA, KS, MI, OH, OR. Includes direct funding to campaign committees only. All data current as of 7/27/22 at 5 pm EDT.

Polls & Ratings

This month Cook Political Report made some ratings changes in three key races: moving Michigan from toss up to lean Democrat, Oregon from likely to lean Democrat, and Georgia from toss up to lean Republican. FiveThirtyEight shows similar trends in their forecast.