August 2023 Insider: Big Senate News + Another Major Abortion Rights Victory

In this month’s Insider: A new top-tier Democratic candidate enters the Senate race in Florida, as a top-tier Republican plans to make the Michigan Senate race more competitive. Blue Dog Democrats—led by women who flipped seats in 2022—make a push to renew their influence in Congress, and voters again reject abortion restrictions at the ballot, this time in Ohio.

Plus, the Electing Women Alliance has gotten a shout out in the Washington Post for our work fundraising for Black candidates like Angela Alsobrooks.

Black donors, power brokers take note of Alsobrooks’s historic Senate run [The Washington Post]

US Senate

Last Tuesday, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell announced she will challenge Sen. Rick Scott in Florida, launching her to immediate frontrunner status for the nomination in what is one of only two potential Democratic flips this cycle (the other being Texas). Debbie flipped a House seat in 2018 and she’s a Latina in a state whose swing hinges on Latino voters, so she’s a smart recruit.

Even though a statewide victory in Florida has slipped just out of reach for Democrats in recent cycles, abortion politics could shake up 2024 in our favor. 1) Florida will have an abortion referendum on the ballot next year, and we’ve seen that drive turnout in the post-Dobbs era, and 2) Rick Scott is uniquely vulnerable on this issue, as he advocated for a national abortion ban last cycle when he was the NRSC chair.

Winning in Florida will be tough but doable under the right circumstances. Cook currently rates the Senate race as Likely Republican, which means there’s a window.

Meanwhile, in Tennessee, there’s also a new woman entrant in the Senate race. Winning here is an even longer shot than Florida, but State Rep. Gloria Johnson, a member of the Tennessee Three, has stepped up. She’ll take on Sen. Marsha Blackburn in what will be an exciting and necessary challenge, even if it’s ultimately unsuccessful.

And in a preview of news for next month, former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers is expected to announce next week that he’ll challenge Elissa Slotkin for Senate in Michigan. She has mentioned him as one of the potential challengers most likely to put up a competitive race, so stay tuned for more information.

US House

Two newly elected women who will be critical to Democrats’ efforts to win back Congress in 2024 are looking to revive the dwindling “Blue Dog” caucus of centrist Democrats, whose membership was decimated during the 2010 midterms and has not recovered.

Reps. Mary Peltola and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who are both women of color, want to build a more diverse, and socially liberal, caucus than the one that hit peak membership (at 64) in 2008. Both hail from districts that Trump won in 2020, and see recruiting more Blue Dogs as integral for Democrats’ ability to win and maintain Congressional majorities.

With swing districts shrinking by the year (see the Sabato analysis below about “excess seats”), a new moderate coalition could succeed if it manages to persuade Republican voters, or continue to suffer from low membership as increasing partisanship continues.

Polling & Analysis

2024 House Polling [FiveThirtyEight]

2024 House Race Analysis: Michigan [Cook Political Report]

2024 House Race Analysis: Minnesota [Cook Political Report]

Democratic Primary in TX-32 Is Either Already Over or Just Beginning [Cook Political Report]

How Majority-Minority Districts Fueled Diversity In Congress [FiveThirtyEight]

Where Both Parties Overperform in the House, 2023 Edition [Sabato’s Crystal Ball]

Key Race Developments

Grand Junction mayor enters Democratic bid to unseat Boebert [Denver Post]

Rhode Island special election also tests definition of Democrat [Roll Call]

Rhode Island could send the first Afro-Latina to Congress [The 19th News]

Ylenia Aguilar has suspended her campaign for Rep. Ruben Gallego’s seat [AZ Central]

New district lines will scramble key New York House races [Politico]

Nevada Republican legislator aims to defeat Rep. Susie Lee [Las Vegas Review Journal]

Hispanic Republicans vie to oust Democrats in diverse districts [Roll Call]

Other News

Dwindling Blue Dog Democrats look to stage a comeback for moderates [The Washington Post]

With Democrats Like Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez, Who Needs Republicans? [Slate]

Democrats need Marie Gluesenkamp Perez [Slow Boring]

NC Rep. Manning’s office says she has broken sternum after three-vehicle wreck [NBC News]

Dr. Nathaniel Horn, the husband of US Rep. Robin Kelly, has died at 68 [AP News]

State & Local

The biggest news in state politics in August came out of Ohio, where voters said ‘No’ to Issue 1 with 57 percent of the vote. If Issue 1 had passed, it would have raised the passing threshold for all ballot initiatives to 60 percent, imperiling a pro-abortion rights initiative that will appear on the November ballot. That initiative, if it passes, will amend the Ohio Constitution to protect abortion access and reproductive autonomy.

Abortion is increasingly fueling other state elections this year. In Mississippi, Greta Kemp Martin is challenging the current attorney general, whose office directly supported the Dobbs v. Jackson (Mississippi) case that overturned Roe. It is the prime issue in Virginia, where Democrats are looking to flip three seats in the House to win control, and protect at least three seats in the Senate to keep the majority. And attorney Lindsey Cheek has made it a core part of her platform in her surprise run for Louisiana attorney general.

Polling & Analysis

2024 Gubernatorial Polling [FiveThirtyEight]

This analysis shows which voters rejected Ohio’s Issue 1 measure [PBS]

A Special Election In Ohio Shows Voters Still Care About Abortion [FiveThirtyEight]

Abortion rights have won in every election since Roe v. Wade was overturned [NBC News]

Diverse Coalition Delivered Protasiewicz Victory in Wisconsin [TargetSmart]

Key Race Developments

What the Ohio special election results mean for abortion rights [Vox]

Abortion’s next big battleground is in Virginia [Axios]

The next big abortion battleground: Pennsylvania [Politico]

Arizona abortion rights groups launch ballot measure effort [The Washington Post]

Abortion rights ballot referendum effort claims 600,000 signatures collected [Florida Politics]

The Democrat running against the woman who ended Roe [The 19th News]

Field for Louisiana attorney general includes 3 Republicans, surprise Democrat [LA Illuminator]

Spanberger says she’ll have answer about run for governor after November [Daily Progress]

Other News

Lt. Gov. Sheila Oliver’s legacy: A progressive champion and ‘ideal public servant’ [Politico]

Justice Janet Protasiewicz is sworn in, giving liberals control of WI Supreme Court [WPR]

These Black Women Are Running For Office To Save Reproductive Rights [Essence]

South Carolina’s all-male Supreme Court upholds 6-week abortion ban [NBC News]

National & Women

While Republicans were gearing up for the party’s first presidential debate, President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris buckled down on fundraising. Kamala stopped by Martha’s Vineyard for one grassroots outing, but high-dollar events dominated her schedule—though she made sure to take time out to continue responding to GOP attacks on abortion rights.

With online, small-dollar fundraising hitting the skids right now, individual donor events like the ones the campaign has been focusing on this month—the kind that EWA specializes in—are only going to increase in importance. You can also help increase the flow of individual donations by becoming part of our donors as raisers program. To sign up or for more information, email Annalise Pflueger at annalise@ewbayarea.org.