This month we’re wrapping up New Jersey and Virginia election results, watching new candidate developments in the US House and the states, and updating our redistricting watch.
But first, a final update on our 10th Anniversary Convening.
10th Anniversary Update
If you couldn’t make it to this year’s convening, or simply want to take a few more minutes to marvel at what we’ve accomplished together, we’ve got some highlights up on our website, as well as a full photo gallery.
And for those who missed Stacy’s email yesterday about the rollout of our 10th Anniversary Sustainability Campaign, you can read the full text here.
US Senate: The 2026 Horserace Begins
With 2025 statewide elections now over, political prognosticators are turning to 2026, with a raft of new polls and analyses of 2026 races.
Polling
- The latest polls have both state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and US House Rep. Haley Stevens very narrowly leading former Rep. Mike Rogers. All primary candidates are essentially tied with each other.
- Gov. Janet Mills is down 4 points on Sen. Susan Collins, though a previous poll had her 5 points ahead. Recent polls also show primary opponent Graham Platner slightly ahead of Gov. Mills.
- Speculative polling from Data for Progress has former Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola up 1 point on incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan, although she has not officially announced in the race.
🔖 View all current polls via FiftyPlusOne.
Fundraising
Full Q3 receipts and cycle receipts from the competitive Democratic US Senate races featuring female candidates and their main Republican challengers:
- Raja Krishnamoorthi (IL): $12,211,917 | $24,878,520
- Robin Kelly (IL): $277,758 | $2,736,148
- Juliana Stratton (IL): $1,000,672 | $2,084,874
- Susan Collins (ME): $1,919,431 | $8,148,208
- Janet Mills (ME): No data for Q3
- Graham Plattner (ME): $3,247,829 | $3,247,829
- Haley Stevens (MI): $1,900,000 | $2,816,630
- Mallory McMorrow (MI): $1,709,382 | $3,854,833
- Abdul El-Sayed (MI): $1,775,637 | $3,573,182
- Mike Rogers (MI): $2,237,259 | $3,526,379
- Angie Craig (MN): $2,202,083 | $4,688,413
- Peggy Flanagan (MN): $914,712 | $2,283,671
Also, make sure you bookmark the newly released 2026 Congressional calendar so you have a framework for next year’s event planning.
🔖 Senate releases its 2026 calendar
News Clips
Measuring the Fight for the Senate After Tuesday’s Democratic Victories [Cook Political Report]
Ayanna Pressley is considering a Senate run in Massachusetts [Politico]
Chuck Schumer Faces Pushback From a ‘Fight Club’ of Senate Democrats [NYT]
Field shaping up in Michigan’s contested U.S. Senate race [MI Advance]
Powell leads NE-02 Dems in fundraising, chasing name ID [NE Examiner]
US House: More Races to Watch
Upcoming elections
With off-year elections over, the big race to watch right now is TN-7, where state Rep. Aftyn Behn is facing state commissioner Matt Van Epps in a district that is nominally safely Republican, but is looking increasingly competitive in a year when Democrats have the momentum. Internal polling has Behn within 8 to 10 points of her opponent. Turnout has unfortunately been down 75 percent compared to 2024, though more sharply in rural Republican areas than urban Democratic areas. The special election is next Tuesday, Dec. 2.
The other race to watch right now is TX-18, where former member of the Houston City Council Amanda Edwards will face Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee. This seat became vacant after Rep. Sylvester Turner’s death earlier this year. Edwards received 26 percent in the Nov. 4 primary; Menefee received 29 percent. Current polling has them neck-and-neck, with Edwards at 34 percent and Menefee at 36 percent. The runoff election is Jan. 31.
And with state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi set to become Virginia’s next lieutenant governor, her state Senate seat will become vacant. Del. Debra Gardner has announced her candidacy, as has Del. Michael Jones.
New candidates to watch
- CA-6: Lauren Babb Tomlinson recently filed for this seat currently held by Democratic Rep. Ami Bera. He’ll be running for CA-3, which now encompasses part of his former district. This district became slightly more Republican after redistricting, but should still be reliably Democratic.
- NJ-11: Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way has filed for this special election to fill Gov.-Elect Mikie Sherrill’s Congressional seat. There are currently 11 declared candidates, including former Obama Administration official Cammie Croft and former Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski (NJ-7). The primary is Feb. 5, and the general election is April 16, 2026.
- VA-2: Former Rep. Elaine Luria is taking a run at her old seat. She lost the seat to incumbent Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans last year. Luria is a former naval officer who worked on nuclear reactors.
Redistricting update
In Texas, a federal judge initially blocked the map recently redrawn to net five new Republican congressional seats. Now, the Supreme Court has let it go into effect temporarily while it considers the case. A ruling is expected next week.
In California, the US Justice Department and California Republican Party are suing to block the updated map there, claiming it violates the 14th Amendment. Ultimately, the US Supreme Court would need to decide this case as well. Notably, Texas is accused of violating the still-in-place part of the Voting Rights Act that bans racial gerrymandering, while California is not.
In Indiana, Republicans in the state legislature have bowed to pressure from Gov. Mike Braun and threats from President Trump, now agreeing to redraw the state’s maps to force out the state’s two remaining Democrats.
In Maryland, Gov. Wes Moore is attempting to build support for mid-decade redistricting among members of the state’s redistricting commission, though so far the commission has resisted.
🔖 2025-2026 Redistricting Tracker: How Many Seats Could Flip? [Cook Political Report]
News Clips
Will Republicans Stave Off More Bad News in Tennessee? [Cook Political Report]
Four House Ratings Move Towards Dems in VA and NJ [Cook Political Report]
Texas ruling brings Newsom’s Prop. 50 back into the spotlight [SFGATE]
California’s new map puts GOP on the run [Politico]
Indiana Lawmakers Are Poised to Vote on Redistricting After All [NYT]
At Supreme Court, Texas congressional map faces issue of timing [Roll Call]
State & Local: VA & NJ Results
New Jersey
Rep. Mikie Sherrill cruised to a 13-point victory despite fears the race would be closer than anticipated. She will be the first female Democratic governor and only the second female governor of New Jersey. She is the first Democrat to win a third consecutive race for governor in 60 years.
Legislative Democrats also did well, retaining all of the close Assembly seats we were watching: Assemblywomen Heather Simmons (AD-3), Andrea Katz (AD-8), Margie Donlon (AD-11), Luanne Peterpaul (AD-11), Mitchelle Drulis (AD-16) and Lisa Swain (AD-38).
Virginia
Rep. Abigail Spanberger became the first female governor in the Commonwealth’s 249-year history. She won by an astonishing 15 points—the highest margin of victory for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate since 1961.
State Sen. Ghazala Hashmi won the lieutenant governor’s race by an 11-point margin; she is the first Muslim-American woman ever elected statewide in the US.
Democrats also secured 64 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates, increasing their majority by 13 seats. All 10 women on our “Virginia is for Women” Zoom slate won their elections and flipped Republican seats. With these victories, women of color now hold 25 percent of seats in the House of Delegates and women hold 42 seats overall, an increase of 8 percent in the lower chamber.
New candidates to watch
- CA-Gov: Tom Steyer and Rep. Eric Swalwell have both newly filed for this race, joining a crowded field that also includes former Rep. Katie Porter, former Labor Secretary Xavier Becerra, former state Controller Betty Yee, and former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigoso. Porter still maintains a lead in the polls, although the largest share of likely voters remain undecided. Despite recent controversies related to both Porter and Becerra, the race is still considered wide open. The primary is on June 2.
- NE-Gov: Lynne Walz, a former Nebraska state Senator, has filed to challenge incumbent Republican Gov. Jim Pillen, who is seeking a second term. She is a former teacher who worked for Fremont Public Schools.
- OH-Gov: Amy Acton, the former director of the Ohio Department of Health during the COVID-19 outbreak, has filed for this open seat being vacated by incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine, who is term limited. She is likely to face former Trump advisor Vivek Ramaswamy.
- TX-Gov: Gina Hinojosa, a current state representative, has declared to face incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott. She has been endorsed by every Democratic US House member from Texas, as well as US Senate candidate and fellow Texas state Rep. James Talarico. Cook rates this race as Solid R.
News Clips
November 2025 Governors Update: Who’s In and Who’s Out [Cook Political Report]
Rep. Crockett to decide by Thanksgiving whether to run for U.S. Senate [TX Tribune]
Stefanik’s run for New York governor could be a gift to Democrats [Politico]
Democrats brace for quick special election in Senate District 15 [VA Mercury]
Katie Wilson elected Seattle’s next mayor [The Seattle Times]
National: Is America Ready for a Woman?
Michelle Obama’s conversation with Tracee Ellis Ross is worth a listen. But make sure you also read this rebuttal from Lauren Leader, the founder and CEO of All In Together.