Today is Halloween, but the true Fright Night is still five days away. Want to hear a really scary story? All of the most consequential federal and state races in the country are … TIED. Here’s the state of those races:
- US Senate: In Michigan and Wisconsin, Elissa Slotkin and Tammy Baldwin are tied with their Republican opponents. Jacky is looking good in Nevada, but it’s still close. Angela has pulled away in Maryland, but things still look tough for Debbie in Florida.
- US House: Cook currently has 25 races in its toss up column, including 10 Democratic women. Of those, all are statistically a dead heat according to 538, which is predicting a 218 to 217 majority in favor of Republicans.
- The States: The New Hampshire governorship might be slipping away but again, it’s very close. North Carolina, including the Lieutenant Governor’s race, still favors Dems.
Read on for a fuller analysis.
US Senate: Gender Giving Gap Explodes
We just passed the final quarterly fundraising deadline before Election Day, and unfortunately we can still report that men are vastly outraising women in the 10 most competitive races for US Senate. On average, the five women running raised $13 million, while the men raised double—$26 million.
Here’s the full breakdown:
- MT: Jon Tester, $32.2 million
- OH: Sherrod Brown, $30.7 million
- TX: Colin Allred, $30.3 million
- AZ: Ruben Gallego, $20.7 million
- MI: Elissa Slotkin, $16.9 million
- PA: Bob Casey, $15.9 million
- MD: Angela Alsobrooks, $13.4 million
- FL: Debbie Mucarsel Powell, $12.8 million
- NV: Jacky Rosen, $12.1 million
- WI: Tammy Baldwin: $11 million
This is despite the fact that six of these races—AZ, MI, MT, NV, OH, PA, WI—have been similarly competitive all year. Currently, Cook lists MI, OH, PA and WI as toss ups; MT as lean R; and AZ and NV as lean D.
💰 Raising & Spending:
Democrats spending their massive cash reserves in final weeks of fight for Senate [Politico]
Republican super PAC makes last-ditch push to swing Nevada Senate race [NBC News]
👥 Debate Watch:
WATCH: Nevada US Senate Debate: Jacky Rosen and Sam Brown [8 News Now]
Hear from rivals Rick Scott and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell [NBC Miami]
📺 New Ads & Media:
In Wisconsin’s Senate Race, the Republican Highlights Baldwin’s Sexuality [NYT]
Senate Republicans unleash massive ad campaign in Blue Wall states [Axios]
Late Lawsuit Could Shape Political Ad Wars in Final Days of Campaign [NYT]
📈 Pollercoaster:
Senate elections: See where important races stand as 2024 decision day looms [USA Today]
Polls finds tight races for president, U.S. Senate in Wisconsin [WISPolitics]
Polls: Rosen holds lead over Brown in Nevada’s Senate race [KNPR]
Alsobrooks has clear lead in Maryland Senate race, Post-UMD poll finds [WaPo]
📰 Analysis & News:
Middle East War Hits Home in Michigan, Threatening Slotkin in Tight Senate Race [NYT]
Why Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen Could Be Democrats’ Quiet 2024 Success Story [HuffPo]
In a Tight Michigan Senate Race, Both Sides Target Split-Ticket Voters [Time Magazine]
US House: Key Districts Shift D
There’s better fundraising news on the House front: In the most-competitive US House races, there is no gender disparity. Among the 10 women and 16 men running in races Cook lists as a toss up, the average Q3 raise is $2.5 million for both groups. In fact, women incumbents are actually averaging slightly more ($2.2 million) than incumbent men ($2 million).
The women facing 50-50 odds heading into next Tuesday—and their Q3 raise totals:
- Rep. Mary Peltola, AK-AL, Hold, $2.7 million
- Kirsten Engel, AZ-6, Flip, $2.7 million
- Rep. Yadira Caraveo, CO-8, Hold, $2 million
- Christina Bohannan, IA-1, Flip, $1.8 million
- Kristen McDonald Rivet, MI-8, Hold-Open, $2.9 million
- Laura Gillen, NY-4, Flip, $2.3 million
- Janelle Bynum, OR-5, Flip, $3.4 million
- Rep. Susan Wild, PA-7, Hold, $2.4 million
- Janelle Stelson, PA-10, Flip, $2.5 million
- Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, WA-3, Hold, $3 million
Some of these Toss Up ratings are quite fresh. IA-1 was sitting in Cook’s Likely R column as recently as early September. PA-10 was Lean R as recently as early this month. Movement there is especially heartening, as it’s metro Harrisburg and could portend a shift toward Democrats in areas we need to win the presidential election.
👥 Debate Watch:
U.S. House hopefuls Junge, McDonald Rivet debate at SVSU forum [Detroit News]
📺 New Ads & Media:
Truth Test: Ads target CD8 Democratic candidate Yadira Caraveo [NBC 9]
FULL INTERVIEW: WQAD News 8 sits down with Christina Bohannan [ABC 8]
Anti-Susan Wild ad attacking her legal work still misses crucial context [The Morning Call]
📈 Pollercoaster:
Rating Changes: Pushing House Toss-ups, Nebraska Senate to Leans Republican [Sabato]
Fundraising Disparity Moves Ohio’s 13th District from Toss Up to Lean Democrat [Cook]
Democrats Poised to Gain Ground in New York, but Lawler Moves to Lean Republican [Cook]
House Rating Change: Scott Perry’s Race Moves to Toss Up [Cook]
📰 Analysis & News:
Washington Democrat calls ballot box burning ‘unpatriotic’ [The Hill]
Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski again endorses Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola [AK Beacon]
A mysterious candidate, a Wild West primary and a battleground district (AZ-6) [AZ Luminaria]
The Long Island Feud That Could Decide Control of Congress (NY-4) [Rolling Stone]
This PA Race Against a MAGA Incumbent Has Just Become a “Toss Up” [Mother Jones]
State & Local: The Tipping Point 12
Last week we unveiled our Tipping Point 12, a dozen candidates in the closest down-ballot races heading into this home stretch. Most of these races dovetail with presidential and US Senate swing states—including Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin—where we need to maximize turnout up and down the ballot:
- Rep. Jaime Churches (MI HD 27), a local school teacher, is fighting to keep her seat against Turning Point Action endorsed-Rylee Linting.
- Sen. Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro (NV SD 6), an attorney, is facing tough competition from both Republican Jill Douglass and Independent Brad Barnhill.
- Sarah Keyeski (WI SD 14), a mental health counselor, is looking to unseat Joan Ballwge, a corporate business owner.
🔖 Bookmark: Check out the full 100-Day Down-Ballot slate and our progress.
In gubernatorial news, the most-competitive race in the country—and the best chance Democrats have of flipping a seat—might be tilting away from us. Polls from the last two weeks show Republican Kelly Ayotte leading Democrat Joyce Craig by between 1 and 4 points, though the race is still decidedly a toss up according to Cook, Sabato and other race rating groups.
👥 Debate Watch:
Candidates for NH governor clash on abortion, homelessness, immigration [WMUR]
‘Micah Beckwith is one heartbeat away’: McCormick, Rainwater gang up on Braun in debate [IndyStar]
💰 Raising & Spending:
Where legislative fundraising stands with less than two weeks until Election Day [Source NM]
Record outside spending floods AZ legislative races as Dems play for a majority [AZ Mirror]
Michigan House battle spurs big spending as Democrats defend slim majority [MI Bridge]
📰 Analysis & News:
2024 Governors Outlook: All Eyes on New Hampshire [Cook]
In 2024, abortion rights initiatives are on the ballot in 10 states [538]
The State Legislatures: Several Key Battleground Chambers Remain Toss-ups [Sabato]
Fight for control of state government runs through 3 Wisconsin Senate districts [WPR]
5 Metro Detroit races in the GOP-Democratic fight for Michigan House [Detroit News]
Your guide to the most interesting — and consequential — races in all 50 states [USA Today]
National & Women: Closing Arguments—Hate Versus Hope
With less than a week left we have, on one side, VP Harris rallying the Bey-hive in Texas and unifying the nation with a speech on the National Mall. On the other side, a hate-filled rally at Madison Square Garden. Yet the polls have tightened, and they keep tightening, with VP Harris running a point or two ahead of Trump in national polls but more forecasts tied because of Democrats’ Electoral College disadvantage.
We won’t know anything until polls close on Nov. 5—and even then, in states with a high number of mail and absentee ballots, we may not know the result for days. Here’s a quick guide to poll closing times in the swing states. Be on the lookout for a deep dive on what to watch on Election Night from our partner, WomenCount.
- 7 PM ET: Georgia
- 8 PM ET: Pennsylvania, Michigan (partial)
- 9 PM ET: Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin
- 10 PM ET: Nevada
🔖 Bookmark: https://womencount.org/election-night-2024
💰 Raising & Spending:
Harris Outraised Trump 3-To-1 With Last Pre-Election Report [Forbes]
See how your neighborhood is giving to Trump and Harris [WaPo]
📺 New Ads & Media:
The top 10 presidential campaign ads in October, by spending [CNN]
Voters actually hate ‘mean-spirited’ anti-transgender ads like Trump’s: survey [the Advocate]
Harris campaign uses John Kelly’s words against Trump in new ad drive [Axios]
📈 Pollercoaster:
Which states have the most — and least — accurate polls? [538]
Harris and Trump Deadlocked to the End, Final Times/Siena National Poll Finds [NYT]
📰 Analysis & News:
Kamala Harris pairs anti-Trump attack with economic pitch at packed D.C. rally [NBC News]
The 13 Best Counties to Watch for Outcome Clues on Election Night [Cook]
A Gender Gap That Looks More Normal Than Historic [Cook]
One Week to Go, and Two Contradictory ‘Gut’ Feelings [Sabato]