With barely a month until Election Day, we’re in a sprint to the finish—with a lot of news breaking in the presidential race as well as key Senate, House and state races. Here’s what’s caught our attention as September winds down and we enter the final stretch.
US Senate: Sending Out a (Fundraising) SOS
With polls in Montana continuing to trend downward, Senate Democrats are searching for another road to 50 seats. That has fundraisers clamoring for increased spending in three long-shot pickup opportunities: Florida, Texas and … Nebraska? For the first time the Independent candidate there is polling in the lead, and since he’s a former union leader, Democrats are coalescing behind him.
Another resource we want to point you toward: the new page on our website tracking all debates and polls for the Senate, House and state races we’re watching. Bookmark it as your one-stop-shop for this info, and if you learn of debates in races you’re watching, please send them to mclayton@womencount.org.
🔖Bookmark: State of the Races: Debates, polling and other timely updates in the races we’re watching.
💰Raising & Spending:
Senate GOP campaign arm nearly matches Dems for August fundraising [Axios]
Senate Dems want spending boost for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell [FL Politics]
DSCC announces big TV ad buy targeting Cruz, Scott in Texas, Florida [The Hill]
Political action committees spend millions in Wisconsin Senate race [Daily Cardinal]
Hogan allies make big move in Maryland Senate race [Politico]
📺New Ads & Media:
Exclusive: Schumer’s new Michigan ad on abortion rights [Axios]
Rosen campaign hits Brown on abortion in new Nevada ad [The Hill]
Conservatives Sure Seem Nervous About the Nebraska Senate Race [Rolling Stone]
📈Pollercoaster:
New poll finds Tammy Baldwin holds commanding lead over Eric Hovde [WI Watch]
Alsobrooks pulls ahead in Maryland’s critical Senate race [The Washington Post]
Scoop: Senate GOP privately predicts 52-seat majority [Axios]
What polling says about key 2024 Senate races [538]
📰Analysis & News:
Alsobrooks property tax revelations: A political hiccup or something more? [MD Matters]
Will the Fight for Abortion Care Help Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Win in Florida? [ELLE Magazine]
Scoop: Rep. Elissa Slotkin warns Harris is “underwater” in Michigan [Axios]
US House: Shifting Ground in Key Races
In September we saw a flurry of movement in some of the closest House races featuring women. Last week, The Center for Politics (aka Sabato’s Crystal Ball) moved five races, and earlier in the month, Cook Political Report moved eight races, with both groups slightly favoring Democrats. Here are the key changes for women:
- ← AK At-Large, Rep. Mary Peltola: Both Sabato and Cook shifted this race from Lean D to Toss Up. Unlike in 2022, Republicans have managed to unite around one candidate, moderate Nick Begich.
- → IA-1, Christina Bohannan: Cook moved this race from Likely R to Lean R. Incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks is considered weak with the MAGA wing after a bruising primary challenge, which could dampen Republicans’ base turnout.
- → OH-9, Rep. Marcy Kaptur: This has been one of the most competitive races of the cycle up to this point, but it looks like Marcy is starting to pull away. Cook has therefore updated their rating from Toss Up to Lean D.
- → WI-3, Rebecca Cooke: Sabato moved this race from Likely R to Lean R, after a recent poll showed Rebecca leading 49-47. This district was Democratic prior to 2016.
💰Raising & Spending:
House And Senate Fundraising Battle: Democrats Widen Cash Lead Over GOP [Forbes]
Unions, progressive groups launch $500k expenditure plan to oust Kean [NJ Globe]
👥Debate Watch:
Business Matters – 7th Congressional Debate: Part 2 (Susan Wild) [WFMZ]
5th U.S. Congressional District Candidate Forum (Carmela Conroy) [Whitman College]
📺New Ads & Media:
Dem group blasts Gabe Evans over his support for abortion ban in new TV ad [CO Politics]
Ad bashing Democratic candidate Bynum features GOP staffer [OR Capitol Chronicle]
Cooke positions herself as moderate in new ad [WISPolitics]
📈Pollercoaster:
Five House Rating Changes as Overall Battle for Majority Remains Tight [Sabato’s Crystal Ball]
Oregon’s most competitive race for Congress remains a dead heat, poll finds [The Oregonian]
📰Analysis & News:
Republicans Have Opportunities to Flip Four Open House Seats [Cook Political Report]
Kevin Kiley vs. Jessica Morse for Congress: Why analysts are watching [Sacramento Bee]
Parkland survivors group endorsements elevate gun debate in 2 Arizona races [AZ Daily Star]
A Congressman Had an Affair. Then He Put His Lover on the Payroll. [The NY Times]
State & Local: NC + NH ‘Til Election Day
Recent controversies in North Carolina (a bit of an understatement) have led the Republican Governors Association to pull resources from the state, and most of Republican candidate Mark Robinson’s staff have quit. The lieutenant governor’s race there, however, is still a toss-up, and other candidates up and down the ballot could get a boost from the top-of-the-ticket meltdown.
But that means in terms of gubernatorial races, New Hampshire is the only game in town—and it’s still basically tied, though we’re waiting to see if a recent debate shifted the landscape at all. Several EWA groups are hosting Joyce Craig now in the wake of the primary, and you can support her now via the WomenCount governors slate.
Down-ballot, we used the last half of September to dive deep into breaking state legislative supermajorities, including in North Carolina, where Republicans have a razor-thin one-seat majority in the House or Representatives. Read the latest dispatch from our 100-Day Down-Ballot tracker:
🔖 Bookmark: Tracking the 100-Day Down-Ballot Candidates [Electing Women]
👥 Debate Watch:
Craig, Ayotte clash on abortion, state budget and trustworthiness at first debate [Concord Monitor]
📺 New Ads & Media:
📈 Pollercoaster:
Lieutenant governor’s race continues as a toss-up [NC Center Square]
Rating Changes: Nebraska and North Carolina [Sabato’s Crystal Ball]
Democrats seize on Mark Robinson scandal to boost down-ballot prospects in N.C. [NBC News]
📰 Analysis & News:
Ayotte vs. Craig is closest governor’s race in US: Experts explain why [Seacoast Online]
After New Robinson Revelations, NC Governor Shifts to Likely Democrat [Cook Political Report]
DLCC spotlights 14 Democratic candidates for the Wisconsin State Legislature [WI Examiner]
National & Women: 35 Days
After a dramatic late-summer rise in the polls, and a slight post-convention bump, we’ve seen the presidential race stagnate, with VP Harris holding 3-point lead on average according to aggregated polls, and most forecasts predicting a coin-flip election. She’s hanging tough in the rust belt by slightly smaller margins, and tied across the sun-belt.
Democrats need to win the nationwide popular vote by at least 4 points to win the Electoral College—President Biden won it by 4.5 points four years ago, and Hillary by only 2 points in 2016—so there is still a long way to go and a lot of work to do to eke out a victory. This race won’t be anything but close.
Here’s the latest news:
💰 Raising & Spending:
Kamala Harris posts huge cash advantage over Donald Trump [The Washington Post]
📺 New Ads & Media:
See the new ad ‘White Dudes for Harris’ is spending $10M to push in key states [CNN]
Harris campaign launching new ad seeking to tie Trump to Mark Robinson [CNN]
‘Be a man and vote for a woman:’ Sam Elliott voices new ad endorsing Kamala Harris [USA Today]
Read the transcript of Kamala Harris’ exclusive solo MSNBC interview [MSNBC]
📈 Pollercoaster:
This could be the closest presidential election since 1876 [538]
Polling Error in 2016-2020: Look Out for Wisconsin [Sabato’s Crystal Ball]
What polls show about Tim Walz and JD Vance before Tuesday’s VP debate [AP Style]
📰 Analysis & News:
How to Convince Your Friends to Vote for Kamala Harris [The Message Box]
Kamala Harris tells WPR she supports eliminating the filibuster to restore abortion rights [WPR]
Local Teamsters unions in swing states rush to endorse Harris [The Washington Post]