To end the month, we have major US Senate race news, developments in key US House primaries featuring incumbent Democratic women, and a historic achievement for women in the California legislature (despite the setbacks we noted in our last Insider).
US Senate: One Up & One Out in Dem-Hold Senate Primaries
Since our last update two bits of news have rocked the 2024 US Senate field.
1️⃣ Angela Alsobrooks just received a flood of endorsements—including from Rep. Jamie Raskin and key members of the Congressional Black Caucus—after her main primary opponent for Maryland’s open seat, Rep. David Trone, used a racial slur during a Congressional hearing. While Angela’s numbers are on an upward track, Trone has consistently led in polling and spending, but this moment could be a game-changer. The primary is May 14.
2️⃣ Tammy Murphy dropped out of the New Jersey race on Monday, saying she was unwilling to engage in the expensive and likely deeply negative campaign it would have taken to win a competitive primary against her main primary opponent, Rep. Andy Kim. A lawsuit against “the line” that likely also influenced her decision was decided today in favor of eliminating the controversial and outdated machine system. The primary is June 4.
🔖 Bookmark: Latest Polls, US Senate [FiveThirtyEight]
Headlines
Alsobrooks Picks Up Senate Endorsements After Opponent Uses Racial Slur [Washington Post]
Thirteen takeaways on Murphy’s exit, Kim’s ascendance, and the future of NJ politics [NJ Globe]
Baldwin narrowly leads Republican in Wisconsin Senate race: Poll [The Hill]
Eric Hovde blamed societal problems on single moms in his first Senate bid. [The 19th News]
Elissa Slotkin, Mike Rogers locked in tight U.S. Senate race [MI Live]
US House: Chips Fall in Two More Swing Districts
Last Tuesday, Ohio became the third major House battleground state to hold Congressional primaries, setting the field for two toss up races featuring incumbent Democratic women:
1️⃣ OH-9: Rep. Marcy Kaptur vs. state Rep. Derek Merrin: Marcy is the longest-serving woman in Congress and the second longest-serving woman in congressional history. Merrin is a semi-serious politician, plus the Congressional Leadership Fund is spending heavily to back him, making this a real race. But he’s still endorsed by Trump, a major albatross in any swing district.
2️⃣ OH-13: Rep. Emilia Sykes vs. state. Sen. Kevin Coughlin: Emilia held this district—vacated by Tim Ryan when he ran for US Senate—for Democrats last year 52.7 to 47.3 percent, though its current Cook rating is R+1. Coughlin is also considered to be a more “establishment” pick, though his endorsements have drawn heavily from the “Jim Jordan” wing of the Ohio Republican Party.
We aren’t watching any more Congressional primaries until April 23, when Pennsylvania voters will decide 1) which Republican will face Rep. Susan Wild (tossup), 2) which Democrats will face Reps. Scott Perry and Brian Fitzpatrick, and 3) how serious the primary challenge to incumbent Democratic Rep. Summer Lee really is.
🔖 Bookmark: Latest Polls, US House [FiveThirtyEight]
Headlines
Ohio Primary Election Results [NY Times]
Turning Over a New Leaf in the Old Dominion [Cook Political Report]
House Rating Changes: MN-02 Moves From Likely to Lean Democrat [Cook Political Report]
Delaware guv endorses opponent of trans U.S. House candidate [Washington Blade]
PA-12 primary hits the airwaves, with Lee and Patel releasing first ads [PA Capital-Star]
Shankland says experience in Legislature can help her win, work for 3rd CD [WI Examiner]
State & Local: Some Good News for Women in California
We’ve been banging the drum about women’s dismal performance in California’s US House and Senate primaries, but now with final results from the state’s legislative primaries, we can report some good news: Women will achieve gender parity in the state Senate, winning 53 percent of seats, and be one step closer to full legislative parity, advancing to at least 55 CA Assembly seats held out of 120 total, from a current 50. And of those women likely to serve in next year’s state Senate, nearly 90 percent are women of color.
Plus, there’s news on the abortion ballot front.
1️⃣ A ruling by Montana Supreme Court Justice Ingrid Gustafson—whose election in 2022 was seen as a victory for abortion-rights supporters—has overruled the state attorney general’s attempt to invalidate that state’s initiative.
2️⃣ The Florida Supreme Court is set to rule on whether that state’s amendment can appear on the November ballot. They are expected to release the decision at 4 pm on Monday, April 1.
🔖 Bookmark: Opinions, Florida Supreme Court | @flcourts on Twitter
Headlines
California’s state Senate is set to hit gender milestone [OC Register]
Montana Supreme Court allows abortion ballot proposal to proceed [Montana Free Press]
Here’s when we’ll know the fate of FL’s abortion, marijuana amendments [Tampa Bay Times]
Jena Griswold fights criticism of Trump-focused partisanship. [Denver Post]
National & Women: Don’t Call It A Comeback … Yet
Some positive polling might be starting to come the President’s way: A swing state poll from Bloomberg/Morning Consult has the race in a dead heat in Michigan and Pennsylvania, pulling ahead in Wisconsin, and closing the gap in Nevada. Plus, according to FiveThirtyEight’s approval polling aggregator, the President’s approval rating has ticked above 40 percent for the first time since last October. The Vice President is starting to get a small bump too.
🔖 Bookmark: Latest Polls, President [FiveThirtyEight|ABC]
Headlines
More Black women say abortion is their top issue in the 2024 election, a survey finds [AP Style]
Democrats are counting on abortion rights to win this battleground state (AZ) [Politico]
“Basically a jump ball”: Biden faces warning signs in key swing state Nevada [Axios]
Biden aims to win Wisconsin, Michigan by leaning heavily on more popular women [NBC News]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult swing state poll hints at Biden comeback [Axios]
Kamala Watch
Harris steps up her role as ambassador to voters shaky on Biden [Washington Post]
Kamala Harris says Israel assault on Rafah ‘would be a huge mistake’ [The Guardian]
Kamala Harris visits Puerto Rico for first time as vice president [NBC News]
Kamala Harris Visits Parkland and Urges States to Adopt Red-Flag Gun Laws [NY Times]
Member Spotlight: Natalie Foster
Electing Women Bay Area member Natalie Foster has written a book! The Guarantee: Inside the Fight For America’s Next Economy looks at how economic disruption from technology and global instability will impact the next election, and makes the political case for what Natalie calls the “Guarantee Economy”—meaning people’s basic needs are met.
You can pre-order the book on Amazon or Bookshop.org, and then meet Natalie during her book tour in May.