June 2023 Insider: One Year Since Dobbs

This month, we added new US Senate candidates, got some positive developments on voting rights from the Supreme Court (!), saw Kamala hit the campaign trail, and marked one year since the Dobbs anniversary.

Here’s all the political news you need to know for June:

US Senate

Last week we got the official announcement that we’ve all been waiting for: Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester launched her campaign for US Senate in Delaware to succeed retiring Sen. Tom Carper, who has already endorsed her. Though the race is considered safely Democratic, Lisa needs early support to solidify her frontrunner status in the primary.

In vulnerable incumbent news, Democrats breathed a collective sigh of relief for the Wisconsin Senate race this month. Rep. Mike Gallagher—Republicans’ top prospect to challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin—says he won’t run for Senate in 2024.

Things are moving the other way for Sen. Jacky Rosen in Nevada, where the GOP consensus is solidifying around retired US Army veteran Sam Brown, who ran and lost to Adam Laxalt in last year’s Republican Senate primary. Brown was an impressive fundraiser in 2022 but also trafficked in 2020 election conspiracies. He joins Jim Marchant, an election denier and failed 2022 AG candidate with ties to QAnon, in the GOP primary.

And we have a new entrant in the California Senate race. Lexi Reese, CEO of the HR platform Gusto and a former Google and Facebook exec, has announced her campaign with some of Democratic politics’ top consulting names. With no political experience it is widely believed that she will not be competitive with the three House Members already running, but we will be watching this race carefully in the weeks to come. Although she does not appear to be able to fully self-fund the race, early spending from her own wealth could potentially shift the dynamics of the crowded jungle primary.

Meanwhile, Rep. Jamie Raskin (MD-8) says he will decide before Independence Day whether to enter the Maryland Senate race, though we’ve seen no sign of an impending announcement. Regardless of Raskin, EWA groups around the country are scheduling events with County Executive Angela Alsobrooks in the weeks to come, since early money in this primary is key.

US House

Surprisingly, some of the best political news this month came from the Supreme Court, which released two positive decisions for the future of fair Congressional maps.

First, in Allen v. Milligan, the Court found that district maps in Alabama violated the Voting Rights Act’s prohibition on racial gerrymandering. Alabama will likely now gain a Democratic, Black-majority district, and Congressional maps could be redrawn in Democrats’ favor in critical states like Florida, Georgia, New York and Texas.

Second, it looks like four new Republican seats recently created in North Carolina could be peeled back thanks to the Court’s decision this week in Moore v. Harper. The North Carolina Supreme Court found that the new Republican-skewed maps violated the state constitution; Republican state lawmakers had sued to invalidate that decision and the entire concept of “judicial review” relating to election law. The Supreme Court, thankfully, said nope.

We also wrapped up Pride Month with a major move toward increasing LGBTQ representation in Congress. Delaware state Sen. Sarah McBride announced she will run for the at-large House seat being vacated by Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, who is running for US Senate. If elected, she would be the first openly transgender person to serve in Congress. This is expected to be a competitive primary in a safe Democratic district.

Polling & Analysis

House Open Seat Tracker [Cook Political Report]

What a New Democratic Map in New York Could Look Like [Cook Political Report]

The Supreme Court’s New Ruling Could Help Democrats Flip The House In 2024 [FiveThirtyEight]

Pumping the Brakes Post-Milligan [Sabato’s Crystal Ball]

2024 House Race Analysis: Illinois [Cook Political Report]

2024 House Race Analysis: Kansas [Cook Political Report]

Key Race Developments

9 questions for Sarah McBride as she launches a historic campaign

Sen. Mark Kelly backs Raquel Terán for Congress over other Democrats

EMILY’s List backs Weiss in open California seat

State Rep. Janelle Bynum Officially Enters 5th Congressional District Race

Titus draws familiar opponent in CD-1

Other News

Surprise Supreme Court win for Black voters could give Democrats an electoral boost

Supreme Court rules against giving state legislatures unchecked control over federal elections

McCarthy’s fractured leadership team faces new abortion tension

Judy Chu — the first Chinese-American woman elected to Congress — reflects on history-making career

State & Local

Abortion continues to roil state politics. We saw that happen again during this month’s Virginia Democratic state legislative primaries, when former Del. Lashrecse Aird thumped anti-abortion stalwart Sen. Joe Morrissey.

Overall, women had a great primary night in Virginia, winning in three of the six state Senate races we were watching—including knocking off two incumbents—and in all five House races. In addition to Lashrecse, Destiny LeVere Bolling (HD-80), Amy Laufer (HD-55), Susanna Gibson (HD-57), Kimberly Pope Adams (HD-82), Russet Perry (SD-31) and Stella Pekarsky (SD-36) will head to the general election, where Amy, Susanna, Kimberly and Russet will have competitive races.

The next major fight over abortion rights will happen Aug. 8 in Ohio, when voters go to the polls to decide on a statewide ballot initiative that would raise the threshold for public approval of ballot initiatives to 60 percent—potentially imperiling a pro-choice initiative set to go on November’s general election ballot.

Ohioans for Reproductive Freedom is the statewide coalition leading the pro-abortion rights ballot measure, and you can now support them via WomenCount.

Polling & Analysis

New Hampshire and Democrats’ search for a gubernatorial target [Sabato’s Crystal Ball]

Moving Beyond the Good Ol’ Boys Club: Recent Trends in Women’s Representation in State Legislatures [Sabato’s Crystal Ball]

The 2023 and 2024 Attorney General and Secretary of State Races [Sabato’s Crystal Ball]

Key Race Developments

Ohio Supreme Court rules in favor of August election that could preserve abortion ban

Missouri voters to decide future of abortion rights in November

NH Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington launches campaign for governor

Four takeaways from Virginia’s legislative primaries

Former Montco and Philly Chief Defender Keir Bradford-Grey is running for Pennsylvania attorney general

News

Katie Hobbs vetoes GOP bills criminalizing homelessness, ranked-choice voting

Gretchen Whitmer wants Democrats to keep talking about abortion

National & Women

Now that the presidential re-election campaign is under way, Kamala is hitting the campaign trail hard and making abortion rights central to her stump speech.

Donors are noticing: EMILY’s List announced this month that it plans to spend $10 million specifically to support her half of the ticket. Our very own Electing Women Alliance group in Denver hosted her this month, and she’s tentatively scheduled to visit the Bay Area group in the fall.

Republican opponents are also noticing. The other side’s presidential candidates are attempting to turn her into a campaign liability, and we have to push back on that line of attack. Kamala is experienced, qualified and has done the work on some of the thorniest political issues, such as immigration. She can do the job; we should call that out.

We’ll drop here another plug for our Biden-Harris Donors as Raisers program: If you want a raiser code or more information, email Annalise: annalise@electingwomen.org.