July 2023 Insider: Q2 Fundraising Numbers are Here

The big news this month: Second-quarter fundraising totals are in, and we have the numbers for every competitive US Senate and House race we’re watching for 2024.

Our Senate candidates also got a few new challengers this month, while on the House side a spate of Democratic women who ran and lost in 2022 announced they would try again.

Plus, there have been major developments in the 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial race, and we have an update on the upcoming battle in Ohio to protect abortion rights.

US Senate

Sen. Jacky Rosen has her first serious Republican challenger in Nevada. Sam Brown is an Army veteran and purple heart recipient who nearly won last year’s Senate primary, after energizing both the MAGA base and Trump-skeptical Republicans. He posted strong fundraising numbers during the first week of his candidacy—$400,000—though Sen. Rosen’s fundraising is also strong, with more than $2 million raised in Q2 and nearly $7.5 million cash on hand.

All of the women we’re tracking posted strong Q2 numbers, but still trail the men in nearly every race. Only one of the most-competitive men, Sen. Joe Manchin, posted less than $3 million in Q2, while that was the case for both Rep. Elissa Slotkin and Sen. Rosen. Sen. Tammy Baldwin was right at the $3 million mark. This is despite similar margins in the most recent competitive Senate races in all these states:

2022 Wisconsin: R+1
2022 Nevada: D+.8
2020 Michigan: D+1.7
2018 West Virginia: D+3.2
2018 Montana: D+3.5
2022 Pennsylvania: D+4.9
2022 Arizona: D+4.9
2022 Ohio: R+6.1

And Rep. Adam Schiff’s fundraising continues to swamp that of both Reps. Barbara Lee and Katie Porter in California, though Rep. Porter got some good polling recently that shows her leading the field at 19 percent.

Speaking of challengers: Actor Hill Harper announced he will challenge Rep. Slotkin for the nomination in Michigan. Harper is best known for his role in The Good Doctor. While Rep. Elissa Slotkin is still the frontrunner, the race is now among six candidates, including well known names like Harper, former state legislator Leslie Love and Michigan education board member Pamela Pugh.

Fundraising Updates

Slotkin raised nearly $3M for Senate bid in second quarter

Sam Brown sprinted out to a strong fundraising start in the Nevada GOP Senate primary

Rosen, congressional Democrats maintain fundraising advantages as 2024 cycle kicks off

Tiffany picks up fundraising as he considers US Senate run, but lags far behind Baldwin

It pays to be censured: Schiff scores record haul after GOP rebuke

Barbara Lee’s PAC launches rescue mission

Numbers via fec.gov. Current as of 7/15/2023.

US House

The field for 2024’s US House races is starting to come into focus, with more than half a dozen new candidates declaring recently for competitive districts. Many of these candidates are women who ran last cycle and have decided to try again, including:

Monica Tranel, MT-1, will face a rematch with Rep. Ryan Zinke
Jamie McLeod Skinner, OR-5, will try again against Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Michelle Vallejo, TX-15, will try to unseat Rep. Monica De La Cruz

Other new candidates in competitive races include:

Melissa Hurtado, a sitting state senator, will take on Rep. David Valadeo in CA-22.
Sue Altman, who leads NJ Working Families, will challenge Rep. Thomas Kean in NJ-7.
Julie Johnson, a state representative, will try to hold onto Democratic Rep. Colin Allred’s TX-32 seat.
Rebecca Cooke, who ran in the primary for WI-3 last year, will again try to make it to the general election next year.

And there is a serious new challenger for Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska. Nick Begich, who came in third in both last year’s special and general elections, will try to make it into Congress a third time. The Begich name is big in Alaska politics, so he already has a strong base of support. Plus, he was seen as the moderate Republican in last year’s elections, and could command most of the right-of-center vote if no third MAGA candidate enters the race.

Fundraising Updates

State Sen. Sarah McBride’s Congressional campaign brings in over $400,000 in first five days

Davids posts robust $600,000 fundraising total in 2nd quarter, tops among Kansas incumbents

Rep. Angie Craig has major fundraising lead in swing district race

Rep. Susan Wild grows her war chest as the Lehigh Valley’s 2024 congressional race heats up

Gluesenkamp Perez piles up campaign cash as reelection battle with Joe Kent looms

Numbers via fec.gov. Current as of 7/15/2023.

Polling & Analysis

House Open Seat Tracker [Cook Political Report]

2024 House Race Ratings [Cook Political Report]

2024 House Ratings [Sabato’s Crystal Ball]

House Open Seat Tracker [Cook Political Report]

House Rating Changes: Calvert, Boebert Move from Lean Republican to Toss Up [Cook Political Report]

Key Race Developments

Former House candidates launch comeback campaigns for 2024

Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer won’t run again in Colorado’s competitive 8th District

Republican Nick Begich to again challenge incumbent Democrat Mary Peltola

New Midterms Data Reveals Good News for Democrats in 2024

Congressional Black Caucus allies launch ‘eight-figure’ effort to flip the House

Other News

Special general election ballot begins to take shape as Utah Democrats select nominee

Rep. Grace Napolitano, a veteran Democrat from Norwalk, to retire from Congress

House blocks Pentagon abortion policy in defense bill, imperiling passage

CD1 candidate releases tax returns, challenges other candidates

State & Local

Women are taking over the 2024 race for New Hampshire governor. After months of speculation, incumbent Republican Gov. Chris Sununu announced he will not run for a fourth term, opening the door for a Democratic takeover. The seat is primed to go blue after eight years of Republican rule, but either way the next governor is likely to be a woman. On the Democratic side, the two frontrunners are Executive Council member Cinde Warmington and Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig. On the Republican side, former Sen. Kelly Ayotte—who Sen. Maggie Hassan defeated in 2016—is quickly consolidating support.

Abortion rights will officially be on the ballot in Ohio this year. Activists with Ohioans for Reproductive Freedom recently turned in 700,000 signatures, more than enough to place an amendment protecting abortion rights on the Nov. 7 ballot. But first, Ohioans will need to go to the polls on Aug. 8 to block an attempt from abortion foes to raise the threshold for passing ballot measures from a simple majority to 60 percent.