It was great to see so many of our members on the Electing Women Alliance monthly zoom with Celinda Lake, one of the top Democratic pollsters and strategists. Celinda’s presentation was substantive, inspiring and a call to action.
We specifically want to highlight the data on the strength of Democratic women candidates on the issue of abortion. “Voters nationwide give a Democratic woman elected official a clear advantage over a Republican man and a Republican woman on handling the issue of abortion.” Note especially the advantage that Democratic women candidates have over Democratic male candidates.
A Democratic woman has a 23-point advantage over a Republican man on this issue.
A Democratic woman has a 16-point advantage over a Republican woman.
A Democratic man has a 12-point advantage over a Republican man.
Question: Who do you think would handle the issue of abortion better?
Celinda emphasized that in close races and in battleground states, the issue of abortion rights and access could be a game changer for Democrats. While this is not the reality we wanted, we now have a responsibility and an opportunity to redouble our efforts between now and November to lift up Democratic women, who we know from Celinda’s presentation are the best messengers on this subject.
More Topline Points
Public opinion is on our side: Two-thirds of Americans oppose the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe (63%), including a plurality who strongly oppose it (44%), while about one-third favor it (34%).
Including in battleground states: Swing state voters support Roe v. Wade by a wide margin of 68% to 32%, including a majority of 51% who strongly support it.
Party ID does not fully track with abortion support: In swing states, more people identify as “pro-abortion rights” than identify as Democrats, so we will need to speak to independents, unaffiliated, and moderate Republican voters on this issue.
A galvanizing issue for independents: In Congressional matchups that feature a pro-abortion rights Democrat against an anti-abortion rights Republican, independents give a 36-point lead to the Democrat. However, a few other issues, like inflation, are still likely to move the needle more.
Democrats are more energized than Republicans: In four critical swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Democrats are 50% more likely than Republicans to say abortion makes them more energized to vote in November.
Pro-choice political factions are becoming more strict than anti-choice factions: More than 4 in 10 (43%) Democrats now say they are more likely to only vote for pro-choice candidates, up from 17% in 2020. White evangelical Protestants (37%) are still the most likely voting block to vote only for anti-choice candidates, a number that is unchanged since 2020.
